Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Itabuna vs Galicia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2025
Sun, Jul 13, 2025
0 - 1
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
de Moura V.
Penalty Missed
1' Event
Palacios J.
(Penalty)
2' Event
Jesus da Silva C.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Galicia in this Baiano 2 2025 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Itabuna
20%
Draws
34%
Galicia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itabuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Galicia haven't matched Itabuna's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Itabuna a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Itabuna have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Galicia, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Itabuna Clean Sheet 68%
Galicia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabuna Galicia
Matches Played 35 42
Wins 15 11
Draws 12 14
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.2 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.84 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2025 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs Galicia
0:1
Jul 6, 2025 Baiano 2
Galicia vs Itabuna
0:0
May 18, 2025 Baiano 2
Galicia vs Itabuna
2:3
Jun 1, 2022 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs Galicia
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabuna 95 / 100
Galicia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabuna Galicia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itabuna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itabuna scored in 66% of their last 35 games.

Galicia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 42 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Itabuna went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabuna VS Galicia
0.8 Goals Scored 2.25
0.2 Goals Conceded 0.88
20% Over 1.5 63%
20% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabuna

(Home)
13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1
Galicia
06 Jul
Galicia
0 : 0
Itabuna
29 Jun
SSA
0 : 0
Itabuna
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0
Bahia de Feira
08 Jun
Teixeira de Freitas
0 : 3
Itabuna
Page 1 of 7

Galicia

(Away)
22 Feb
Vitoria
3 : 0
Galicia
12 Feb
Galicia
2 : 1
Jequie
07 Feb
Porto-BA
1 : 0
Galicia
04 Feb
Galicia
1 : 2
Bahia de Feira
27 Jan
Galicia
1 : 0
Alagoinhas
Page 1 of 9

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Bahia de Feira 4
Fluminense de Feira 1
Itabuna 0
Galicia 1
Final
Bahia de Feira 3
Galicia 2