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Itabuna vs Grapiuna

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2025
Itabuna Logo

Itabuna

2 - 0
FT
Grapiuna Logo

Grapiuna

Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Guilherme Ivo
52' Event
Aisley
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Itabuna in this Baiano 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itabuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Itabuna
30%
Draws
33%
Grapiuna
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Itabuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Itabuna lately — more wins on the board than Grapiuna.
  • Itabuna are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Baiano 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Itabuna Clean Sheet 20%
Grapiuna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabuna Grapiuna
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 14 7
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.26 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.16
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 0.41
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2025 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs Grapiuna
2:0
May 29, 2022 Baiano 2
Grapiuna vs Itabuna
0:0
May 3, 2015 Baiano 2
Grapiuna vs Itabuna
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Ivo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aisley
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Grapiuna Compare

Avg xG / game 0.37
Avg xA / game 0.23

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabuna 85 / 100
Grapiuna 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabuna Grapiuna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ITA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Itabuna scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Grapiuna's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Solid form: Itabuna remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Itabuna VS Grapiuna
1.14 Goals Scored 0.38
0.43 Goals Conceded 4.13
43% Over 1.5 100%
29% Over 2.5 88%
14% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabuna

(Home)
13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1
Galicia
06 Jul
Galicia
0 : 0
Itabuna
29 Jun
SSA
0 : 0
Itabuna
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0
Bahia de Feira
08 Jun
Teixeira de Freitas
0 : 3
Itabuna
Page 1 of 7

Grapiuna

(Away)
05 Jul
Grapiuna
0 : 6
Leonico
20 Jun
Camacari
1 : 3
Grapiuna
14 Jun
Grapiuna
0 : 7
Feira FC
07 Jun
Redencao
2 : 2
Grapiuna
31 May
Vitoria da Conquista
0 : 2
Grapiuna
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Itabuna 9 7 2 0 20:7 23
2 Bahia de Feira 9 6 2 1 28:5 20
3 Fluminense de Feira 9 6 2 1 16:5 20
4 Galicia 9 4 3 2 20:9 15
5 EC Ypiranga 9 3 4 2 11:9 13
6 Vitoria da Conquista 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
7 SSA 9 2 4 3 10:8 10
8 Leonico 8 2 1 5 12:20 7
9 Grapiuna 9 0 1 8 4:31 1
10 Teixeira de Freitas 9 0 1 8 0:24 0
Promotion - Baiano 2 2025 (Play Offs)