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Italy U17 vs Portugal U17 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Euro U17 2026
Italy U17 Logo

Italy U17

3 - 2
FT
Portugal U17 Logo

Portugal U17

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Guerra G.
Assist: Domingos E.
15' Event
Ferreirinha A.
Assist: Rodrigues T.
45'
Correia R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Euro U17 2026 game between Italy U17 and Portugal U17 finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy U17.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Italy U17
20%
Draws
28%
Portugal U17
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Italy U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Portugal U17 haven't matched Italy U17's recent run of results.
  • 52% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Italy U17 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Italy U17 Clean Sheet 18%
Portugal U17 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy U17 Portugal U17
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 20
Draws 3 3
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 2.2 2.53
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Euro U17
Italy U17 vs Portugal U17
3:2
Sep 4, 2025 Friendly International
Portugal U17 vs Italy U17
1:2
May 29, 2025 Euro U17
Italy U17 vs Portugal U17
2:3
Sep 3, 2024 Friendly International
Italy U17 vs Portugal U17
2:0
Jun 5, 2024 Euro U17
Italy U17 vs Portugal U17
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Perillo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Okon-Engstler G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Portugal U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerra G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreirinha A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy U17 31 / 100
Portugal U17 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy U17 Portugal U17

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy U17 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U17's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Italy U17 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Portugal U17 has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Italy U17 VS Portugal U17
2.38 Goals Scored 1.67
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy U17

(Home)
06 Oct
Croatia U17
0 : 1
Italy U17
02 Oct
Ukraine U17
2 : 3
Italy U17
26 Sept
Italy U17
3 : 3
Turkey U17
30 Aug
Hungary U17
1 : 3
Italy U17
26 Aug
Italy U17
3 : 3
Turkey U17
Page 1 of 6

Portugal U17

(Away)
06 Oct
Portugal U17
1 : 0
Denmark U17
31 Mar
Portugal U17
1 : 2
Iceland U17
28 Mar
Portugal U17
0 : 1
Romania U17
25 Mar
Italy U17
3 : 2
Portugal U17
18 Feb
Portugal U17
1 : 0
Germany U17
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France U17 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
2 Slovenia U17 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
3 Germany U17 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
4 North Macedonia U17 3 0 0 3 2:8 0
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Italy U17 3 3 0 0 9:3 9
2 Romania U17 3 2 0 1 7:4 6
3 Iceland U17 3 1 0 2 4:10 3
4 Portugal U17 3 0 0 3 3:6 0
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro U17 3 2 0 1 5:5 6
2 Greece U17 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
3 Sweden U17 3 1 1 1 9:5 4
4 Norway U17 3 0 1 2 2:7 1
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Denmark U17 3 2 1 0 10:3 7
2 Czech Republic U17 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
3 Austria U17 3 0 2 1 3:7 2
4 Kazakhstan U17 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Belgium U17 3 3 0 0 7:4 9
2 Serbia U17 3 2 0 1 8:5 6
3 Switzerland U17 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
4 Cyprus U17 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain U17 3 2 1 0 5:0 7
2 Scotland U17 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Turkey U17 3 1 1 1 4:2 4
4 Northern Ireland U17 3 0 0 3 1:8 0
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Croatia U17 3 2 1 0 8:3 7
2 Ireland U17 3 2 0 1 10:2 6
3 Poland U17 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
4 Slovakia U17 3 0 0 3 2:16 0
Promotion - Euro U17 2026 (Main)