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Italy U21 vs Japan U21

World World

Friendly International 2022
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Colombo L.
Assist: Esposito Se.
46'
Sub
Bellanova R. In: Cambiaso A.
Out: Bellanova R.
46'
Sub
Udogie D. In: Parisi F.
Out: Udogie D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International 2022 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Italy U21
6%
Draws
4%
Japan U21
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Italy U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Japan U21 haven't matched Italy U21's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Italy U21 a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 19%
Japan U21 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy U21 Japan U21
Matches Played 30 22
Wins 18 8
Draws 8 3
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2022 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Japan U21
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Colombo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Japan U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Fujio S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy U21 85 / 100
Japan U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy U21 Japan U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ITA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U21's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Japan U21 let in goals in 77% of their last 22 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Italy U21 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Italy U21 VS Japan U21
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy U21

(Home)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
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Japan U21

(Away)
08 Jun
Japan U21
3 : 0
Ukraine U21
05 Jun
Uzbekistan U23
0 : 1
Japan U21
29 Mar
South Korea U23
2 : 1
Japan U21
27 Mar
Japan U21
0 : 2
USA U21
27 Mar
Belgium U21
3 : 2
Japan U21
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