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Italy U21 vs Tunisia U21

World World

Friendly International 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Parigini V.
38' Event
Kean M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Italy U21 in this Friendly International 2018 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Italy U21
15%
Draws
39%
Tunisia U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Italy U21 have won more games recently than Tunisia U21.
  • Model gives Italy U21 a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Friendly International 2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Tunisia U21 Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy U21 Tunisia U21
Matches Played 31 15
Wins 19 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 5 3
Goals Scored 2.29 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2018 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Tunisia U21
2:0
Sep 15, 2001 Mediterranean Games
Italy U21 vs Tunisia U21
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Parigini V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Tunisia U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy U21 85 / 100
Tunisia U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy U21 Tunisia U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U21 found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (31 games).

Tunisia U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 15 matches.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Italy U21 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Italy U21 VS Tunisia U21
1.25 Goals Scored 1.2
1 Goals Conceded 0.8
63% Over 1.5 60%
38% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy U21

(Home)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
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Tunisia U21

(Away)
30 Aug
Tunisia U21
0 : 2
Algeria U21
28 Aug
Italy U18
1 : 3
Tunisia U21
26 Aug
Turkey U20
1 : 2
Tunisia U21
24 Aug
Morocco U20
0 : 1
Tunisia U21
22 Aug
Tunisia U21
0 : 0
North Macedonia U21
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