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Stadium Background

Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

World World

Friendly International 2024 Stadio Carlo Castellani
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Frattesi D.
Assist: Chiesa F.
65'
Sub
Jorginho In: Pellegrini Lo.
Out: Jorginho
65'
Sub
Fagioli N. In: Cristante B.
Out: Fagioli N.

AI Match Summary

Italy in this Friendly International 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Italy
17%
Draws
13%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Italy have won more games recently than Bosnia & Herzegovina.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Italy taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Italy Clean Sheet 68%
Bosnia & Herzegovina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy Bosnia & Herzegovina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 World Championship
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
2:1
Jun 9, 2024 Friendly International
Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
1:0
Nov 18, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
0:2
Sep 4, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
1:1
Nov 15, 2019 Euro
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Frattesi D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Bosnia & Herzegovina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy 77 / 100
Bosnia & Herzegovina 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy Bosnia & Herzegovina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ITA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Italy scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Bosnia & Herzegovina conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Italy remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Italy VS Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%