Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Italy vs Ecuador

World World

Friendly International 2024 Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Pellegrini Lo.
38'
Jorginho
46'
Sub
Bellanova R. In: Di Lorenzo G.
Out: Bellanova R.

AI Match Summary

Italy in this Friendly International 2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Italy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Italy
15%
Draws
37%
Ecuador
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Italy have won more games recently than Ecuador.
  • Italy are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Italy have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Italy Clean Sheet 20%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy Ecuador
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 18 12
Draws 5 13
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.87 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2024 Friendly International
Italy vs Ecuador
2:0
Jun 11, 2005 Friendly International
Italy vs Ecuador
1:1
Jun 3, 2002 World Championship
Italy vs Ecuador
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Pellegrini Lo.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barella N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Ecuador Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy 42 / 100
Ecuador 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy Ecuador

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Italy scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Italy stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Ecuador let in goals in 52% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Italy VS Ecuador
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy

(Home)
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2 : 1
Italy
26 Mar
Italy
2 : 0
Northern Ireland
16 Nov
Italy
1 : 4
Norway
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Ecuador

(Away)
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
14 Jun
Ivory Coast
1 : 0
Ecuador
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
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