Sport Picks
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Beccari C. In: Cantore S.
Out: Beccari C.
51'
51'
Boattin L.
53'
53'
Faerge E.
Assist: Hasbo J.
AI Match Summary
The UEFA Nations League Women game between Italy W and Denmark W finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Denmark W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
35%
36%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Denmark W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Denmark W come out ahead of Italy W on wins alone.
- 29% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League Women fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Italy W Clean Sheet 68%
Denmark W Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Italy W | Denmark W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.53 | 1.8 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 World Cup Women
Denmark W vs Italy W
0:0
Mar 7, 2026 World Cup Women
Italy W vs Denmark W
1:1
Apr 8, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Denmark W vs Italy W
0:3
Feb 25, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Denmark W
1:3
Feb 16, 2022 Algarve Cup Women
Denmark W vs Italy W
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Italy W Compare
Top Goalscorer Cambiaghi M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Denmark W Compare
Top Goalscorer Faerge E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Holmgaard S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Italy W 41 / 100
Denmark W 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Italy W Denmark W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Italy W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Italy W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Italy W's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Denmark W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Italy W VS Denmark W
0.63 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Italy W
(Home) 09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2 Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0 Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0 Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6 Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1 Denmark W
Page 1 of 6
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0 Serbia W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1 Denmark W
03 Mar
Italy W
0 : 1 Sweden W
28 Oct
Italy W
0 : 1 Brazil W
24 Oct
Italy W
1 : 1 Japan W
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Denmark W
(Away) 09 Jun
Serbia W
1 : 4 Denmark W
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1 Sweden W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0 Italy W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2 Denmark W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1 Denmark W
Page 1 of 6
09 Jun
Serbia W
1 : 4 Denmark W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2 Denmark W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1 Denmark W
24 Oct
Finland W
1 : 6 Denmark W
12 Jul
Poland W
3 : 2 Denmark W
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 26:4 | 16 |
| 2 | Netherlands W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 3 | Austria W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Scotland W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3:15 | 1 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14:2 | 18 |
| 2 | Norway W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Iceland W | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:9 | 4 |
| 4 | Switzerland W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:12 | 2 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:8 | 15 |
| 2 | England W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Belgium W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:16 | 6 |
| 4 | Portugal W | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:21 | 4 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden W | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13:6 | 12 |
| 2 | Italy W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 10 |
| 3 | Denmark W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:13 | 9 |
| 4 | Wales W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:10 | 2 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)
