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Italy W vs Sweden W

World World

World Cup Women Stadio Oreste Granillo, Reggio Calabria
Italy W Logo

Italy W

0 - 1
FT
Sweden W Logo

Sweden W

Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Angeldal F.
Assist: Schroder F.
48'
Di Guglielmo L.
51'
Cambiaghi M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-2. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Italy W
35%
Draws
23%
Sweden W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Italy W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sweden W lately — more wins on the board than Italy W.
  • Win probability leans Italy W's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Sweden W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sweden W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Italy W Clean Sheet 68%
Sweden W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy W Sweden W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 10 7
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.53 1.97
Goals Conceded 1 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 World Cup Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
2:2
Mar 3, 2026 World Cup Women
Italy W vs Sweden W
0:1
May 30, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Sweden W
0:0
Apr 4, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
3:2
Oct 31, 2023 UEFA Nations League Women
Sweden W vs Italy W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sweden W Compare

Top Goalscorer Angeldal F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy W 95 / 100
Sweden W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy W Sweden W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Italy W found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Sweden W has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Italy W VS Sweden W
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy W

(Home)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0
Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0
Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6
Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1
Denmark W
Page 1 of 6

Sweden W

(Away)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Denmark W
2 : 1
Sweden W
18 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 0
Serbia W
14 Apr
Sweden W
1 : 2
Denmark W
07 Mar
Serbia W
0 : 0
Sweden W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Denmark W 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
2 Italy W 6 2 3 1 12:4 9
3 Sweden W 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Serbia W 6 0 1 5 2:17 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France W 6 4 1 1 11:5 13
2 Netherlands W 6 3 2 1 12:9 11
3 Ireland W 6 3 0 3 9:9 9
4 Poland W 6 0 1 5 6:15 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain W 6 5 0 1 21:3 15
2 England W 6 5 0 1 13:5 15
3 Iceland W 6 2 0 4 3:12 6
4 Ukraine W 6 0 0 6 2:19 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany W 6 5 1 0 18:1 16
2 Norway W 6 4 0 2 11:9 12
3 Austria W 6 1 1 4 3:9 4
4 Slovenia W 6 1 0 5 3:16 3
Promotion - World Cup Women (Main)
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)