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Itapirense vs Desportivo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Paulista A3 2023
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AI Match Summary

Desportivo in this Paulista A3 2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desportivo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Itapirense
20%
Draws
32%
Desportivo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Itapirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Desportivo lately — more wins on the board than Itapirense.
  • Win probability leans Itapirense's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Paulista A3 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Itapirense Clean Sheet 20%
Desportivo Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itapirense Desportivo
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 21 13
Goals Scored 0.97 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Itapirense
1:2
Feb 19, 2025 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs Desportivo
2:3
Jan 27, 2024 Paulista A3
Desportivo vs Itapirense
1:1
Mar 9, 2023 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs Desportivo
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itapirense 49 / 100
Desportivo 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itapirense Desportivo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itapirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itapirense found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (33 games).

Desportivo let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Desportivo registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itapirense VS Desportivo
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Itapirense

(Home)
21 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 1
Rio Preto EC
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0
Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2
Itapirense
08 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
Itapirense
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Desportivo

(Away)
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
14 Mar
Rio Preto EC
4 : 0
Desportivo
11 Mar
Catanduva FC
0 : 0
Desportivo
07 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 1
Uniao Barbarense
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
Itapirense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marilia 15 9 2 4 25:15 29
2 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 13:12 27
3 Capivariano 15 7 6 2 28:11 27
4 Gremio Prudente 15 7 3 5 21:16 24
5 Desportivo 15 7 3 5 14:9 24
6 EC Sao Bernardo 15 7 1 7 17:16 22
7 Uniao Suzano 15 6 3 6 21:18 21
8 Matonense 15 6 2 7 21:18 20
9 Bandeirante 15 5 5 5 19:15 20
10 Red Bull Brasil 15 5 4 6 24:23 19
11 Rio Preto EC 15 5 4 6 15:21 19
12 Itapirense 15 4 7 4 11:17 19
13 Votuporanguense 15 4 5 6 14:19 17
14 Sertaozinho 15 5 1 9 15:26 16
15 Barretos EC 15 4 4 7 18:29 16
16 Audax-SP 15 3 3 9 8:19 12
Promotion - Paulista A3 2023 (Second stage)