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Itapirense vs Francana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
de Lima J.
82' Event
Marcos V.

AI Match Summary

Itapirense in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itapirense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Itapirense
15%
Draws
42%
Francana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itapirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Francana have won more games recently than Itapirense.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Itapirense Clean Sheet 19%
Francana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itapirense Francana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 20 14
Goals Scored 0.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs Francana
2:0
Aug 2, 2025 Copa Paulista
Itapirense vs Francana
0:1
Jun 28, 2025 Copa Paulista
Francana vs Itapirense
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Paulista A3
Francana vs Itapirense
1:2
Jul 8, 2018 Paulista A4
Francana vs Itapirense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itapirense Compare

Top Goalscorer de Lima J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcos V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Francana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itapirense 32 / 100
Francana 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itapirense Francana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Itapirense scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Francana has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Francana has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Itapirense VS Francana
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Itapirense

(Home)
21 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 1
Rio Preto EC
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0
Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2
Itapirense
08 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
Itapirense
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Francana

(Away)
21 Mar
Marilia
2 : 0
Francana
15 Mar
Francana
3 : 0
Rio Claro
11 Mar
Uniao Sao Joao
2 : 1
Francana
08 Mar
Portuguesa Santista
1 : 0
Francana
04 Mar
Francana
1 : 3
Rio Preto EC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)