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Itapirense vs Rio Claro

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Itapirense Logo

Itapirense

1 - 1
FT
Rio Claro Logo

Rio Claro

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Francis A.
32' Event
Facundini T.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 game between Itapirense and Rio Claro finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Itapirense
15%
Draws
42%
Rio Claro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itapirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Itapirense haven't matched Rio Claro's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Itapirense Clean Sheet 68%
Rio Claro Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itapirense Rio Claro
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 8
Draws 6 11
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.93 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs Rio Claro
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itapirense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Rio Claro Compare

Top Goalscorer Francis A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itapirense 41 / 100
Rio Claro 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itapirense Rio Claro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Itapirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itapirense's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Rio Claro has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Rio Claro has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Itapirense VS Rio Claro
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Itapirense

(Home)
21 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 1
Rio Preto EC
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0
Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2
Itapirense
08 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
Itapirense
Page 1 of 6

Rio Claro

(Away)
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Rio Claro
3 : 1
Uniao Suzano
15 Mar
Francana
3 : 0
Rio Claro
11 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)