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Itapirense vs XV de Jau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Tche Tche
8' Event
Jorge Quintero
45'
Jadson

AI Match Summary

XV de Jau in this Paulista A3 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored XV de Jau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Itapirense
15%
Draws
65%
XV de Jau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: XV de Jau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Itapirense haven't matched XV de Jau's recent run of results.
  • XV de Jau are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Paulista A3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Itapirense Clean Sheet 19%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itapirense XV de Jau
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 4 13
Draws 7 8
Losses 21 9
Goals Scored 0.94 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.72 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Paulista A3
Itapirense vs XV de Jau
1:3
Mar 5, 2025 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Itapirense
1:0
Jun 9, 2019 Paulista A4
XV de Jau vs Itapirense
2:1
Apr 27, 2019 Paulista A4
Itapirense vs XV de Jau
3:3
Jun 30, 2018 Paulista A4
Itapirense vs XV de Jau
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itapirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Facundini T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

XV de Jau Compare

Top Goalscorer Tche Tche
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jorge Quintero
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itapirense 12 / 100
XV de Jau 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itapirense XV de Jau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XV de Jau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Itapirense's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

XV de Jau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Itapirense stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itapirense VS XV de Jau
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Itapirense

(Home)
21 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 1
Rio Preto EC
14 Mar
Uniao Barbarense
1 : 0
Itapirense
11 Mar
Rio Branco SP
3 : 2
Itapirense
08 Mar
Itapirense
0 : 3
EC Sao Bernardo
04 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
Itapirense
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XV de Jau

(Away)
18 Apr
Marilia
3 : 2
XV de Jau
12 Apr
XV de Jau
0 : 0
Marilia
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)