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Ituano vs Botafogo PB

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio Novelli Júnior, Itu
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Erick
39'
Richard
45'
Bull

AI Match Summary

The Serie C game between Ituano and Botafogo PB finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ituano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Ituano
15%
Draws
59%
Botafogo PB
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Botafogo PB

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Botafogo PB come out ahead of Ituano on wins alone.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Botafogo PB taking it.
  • Regular Serie C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Ituano have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Ituano Clean Sheet 17%
Botafogo PB Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ituano Botafogo PB
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Serie C
Ituano vs Botafogo PB
1:0
Jul 19, 2025 Serie C
Ituano vs Botafogo PB
0:3
Nov 6, 2021 Serie C
Ituano vs Botafogo PB
3:1
Oct 2, 2021 Serie C
Botafogo PB vs Ituano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ituano Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Xavier
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.34
Avg xA / game 0.22

Botafogo PB Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ituano 20 / 100
Botafogo PB 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ituano Botafogo PB

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Botafogo PB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botafogo PB has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Ituano found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Recent resilience: Ituano stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ituano VS Botafogo PB
0.38 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
25% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ituano

(Home)
29 Aug
Floresta EC
2 : 0
Ituano
22 Aug
Ituano
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
15 Aug
Volta Redonda
1 : 0
Ituano
08 Aug
Ituano
2 : 0
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
Page 1 of 7

Botafogo PB

(Away)
12 Sept
Botafogo PB
0 : 1
Floresta EC
06 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Botafogo PB
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
22 Aug
Botafogo PB
3 : 1
Guarani
15 Aug
Amazonas
0 : 0
Botafogo PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 28:19 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 28:22 32
3 Ferroviaria 19 8 6 5 22:15 30
4 Maringa FC 19 8 6 5 32:30 30
5 Floresta EC 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
6 Internacional de Limeira 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
7 Paysandu PA 19 9 2 8 26:27 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 20:15 29
9 Ypiranga FC 19 8 5 6 27:24 29
10 Guarani 19 7 7 5 34:24 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 19:22 28
12 Maranhao 19 7 6 6 19:18 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 21:23 26
14 SER Caxias do Sul 19 6 7 6 17:16 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 18:21 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 13:25 21
17 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 19 5 6 8 21:21 21
18 Anapolis 19 5 4 10 17:22 19
19 Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 14:27 17
20 Confianca 19 3 4 12 11:20 13
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)