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Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ivinhema play Aguia Negra in the Sul-Matogrossense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ivinhema averaged 1.26 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Aguia Negra averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Ivinhema won 4, Aguia Negra won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 22, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Ivinhema and 1.56 for Aguia Negra. This points to a Ivinhema double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Ivinhema
23%
Draws
31%
Aguia Negra
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Ivinhema

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Ivinhema picked up more points recently compared to Aguia Negra.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 15%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivinhema Aguia Negra
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 9 10
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.26 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:1
Mar 23, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
4:1
Mar 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Ivinhema
0:1
Feb 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:0
Mar 16, 2017 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ivinhema Compare

Top Goalscorer Michel
3 Goals
Assists Leader Elieser
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Aguia Negra Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivinhema 44 / 100
Aguia Negra 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivinhema Aguia Negra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ivinhema or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ivinhema attacking → ← attacking Aguia Negra

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ivinhema scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Aguia Negra let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Ivinhema went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aguia Negra lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 31
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00