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Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense
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AI Match Summary

Ivinhema in this Sul-Matogrossense matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ivinhema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Ivinhema
39%
Draws
31%
Aguia Negra
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Ivinhema have won more games recently than Aguia Negra.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ivinhema have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 68%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivinhema Aguia Negra
Matches Played 38 28
Wins 14 7
Draws 9 10
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.88 1
Goals Conceded 2.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:1
Mar 23, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
4:1
Mar 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Ivinhema
0:1
Feb 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:0
Mar 16, 2017 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivinhema 41 / 100
Aguia Negra 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivinhema Aguia Negra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IVI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Ivinhema found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (38 games).

Recent resilience: Ivinhema stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ivinhema VS Aguia Negra
1.88 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Naviraiense953113:918
2Operario MS945014:517
3Corumbaense934210:713
4Ivinhema933310:1112
5Bataguassu933315:1712
6Dourados924315:1410
7Clube de Regatas Aquidauana924312:1310
8Pantanal923410:159
9Costa Rica91536:108
10Aguia Negra91449:137