Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ivinhema in this Sul-Matogrossense matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ivinhema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Ivinhema
35%
Draws
19%
Aguia Negra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ivinhema

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Ivinhema have won more games recently than Aguia Negra.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ivinhema have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 68%
Aguia Negra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivinhema Aguia Negra
Matches Played 38 28
Wins 14 7
Draws 9 10
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.29 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:1
Mar 23, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
4:1
Mar 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Aguia Negra vs Ivinhema
0:1
Feb 5, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:0
Mar 16, 2017 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Aguia Negra
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivinhema 41 / 100
Aguia Negra 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivinhema Aguia Negra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ivinhema Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia Negra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Ivinhema found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (38 games).

Recent resilience: Ivinhema stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ivinhema VS Aguia Negra
1.88 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ivinhema

(Home)
12 Jul
ASA
4 : 0
Ivinhema
06 Jul
Ivinhema
1 : 2
ASA
29 Jun
Democrata GV
1 : 1
Ivinhema
21 Jun
Ivinhema
3 : 1
Democrata GV
14 Jun
CRAC
1 : 1
Ivinhema
Page 1 of 8

Aguia Negra

(Away)
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Ivinhema
2 : 1
Aguia Negra
15 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 1
Corumbaense
11 Feb
Aguia Negra
1 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
08 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Aguia Negra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Naviraiense 9 5 3 1 13:9 18
2 Operario MS 9 4 5 0 14:5 17
3 Corumbaense 9 3 4 2 10:7 13
4 Ivinhema 9 3 3 3 10:11 12
5 Bataguassu 9 3 3 3 15:17 12
6 Dourados 9 2 4 3 15:14 10
7 Clube de Regatas Aquidauana 9 2 4 3 12:13 10
8 Pantanal 9 2 3 4 10:15 9
9 Costa Rica 9 1 5 3 6:10 8
10 Aguia Negra 9 1 4 4 9:13 7
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)