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Ivinhema vs Dourados - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Wellerson Uberaba

AI Match Summary

Ivinhema in this Sul-Matogrossense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ivinhema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ivinhema
35%
Draws
32%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Dourados have won more games recently than Ivinhema.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 14%
Dourados Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivinhema Dourados
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 9 11
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.16 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Dourados
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Dourados
1:0
Mar 9, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Ivinhema
1:0
Feb 10, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Dourados
1:2
Mar 4, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Ivinhema
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ivinhema Compare

Top Goalscorer Wellerson Uberaba
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Dourados Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.89

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivinhema 31 / 100
Dourados 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivinhema Dourados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ivinhema scored in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Dourados conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ivinhema remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ivinhema VS Dourados
1.75 Goals Scored 1.33
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Ivinhema

(Home)
12 Jul
ASA
4 : 0
Ivinhema
06 Jul
Ivinhema
1 : 2
ASA
29 Jun
Democrata GV
1 : 1
Ivinhema
21 Jun
Ivinhema
3 : 1
Democrata GV
14 Jun
CRAC
1 : 1
Ivinhema
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Dourados

(Away)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)