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Jacobina vs Grapiuna

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2
Jacobina Logo

Jacobina

2 - 1
FT
Grapiuna Logo

Grapiuna

Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Santos da Silva M.
58' Event
Santana K.
63'
Kaique
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jacobina in this Baiano 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jacobina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Jacobina
15%
Draws
59%
Grapiuna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Grapiuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Jacobina haven't matched Grapiuna's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Baiano 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Jacobina have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Jacobina Clean Sheet 16%
Grapiuna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jacobina Grapiuna
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 0.79 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.93 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Baiano 2
Jacobina vs Grapiuna
2:1
May 28, 2023 Baiano 2
Grapiuna vs Jacobina
2:0
Jul 10, 2022 Baiano 2
Grapiuna vs Jacobina
0:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jacobina Compare

Top Goalscorer Santana K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Grapiuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos da Silva M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jacobina 31 / 100
Grapiuna 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jacobina Grapiuna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Grapiuna has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Jacobina scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Jacobina went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jacobina VS Grapiuna
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jacobina

(Home)
05 Jul
Jacobina
0 : 5
Feira FC
19 Jun
Leonico
5 : 2
Jacobina
13 Jun
Jacobina
0 : 6
Fluminense de Feira
07 Jun
Barreiras
2 : 1
Jacobina
31 May
Jacobina
2 : 0
Camacari
Page 1 of 6

Grapiuna

(Away)
05 Jul
Grapiuna
0 : 6
Leonico
20 Jun
Camacari
1 : 3
Grapiuna
14 Jun
Grapiuna
0 : 7
Feira FC
07 Jun
Redencao
2 : 2
Grapiuna
31 May
Vitoria da Conquista
0 : 2
Grapiuna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fluminense de Feira 9 8 1 0 33:5 25
2 SSA 9 7 0 2 19:5 21
3 Barreiras 9 7 0 2 20:8 21
4 Feira FC 9 6 1 2 27:4 19
5 Redencao 9 4 2 3 16:11 14
6 Leonico 9 3 1 5 16:24 10
7 Jacobina 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
8 Grapiuna 9 2 1 6 8:26 7
9 Vitoria da Conquista 9 1 3 5 9:15 6
10 Camacari 9 0 0 9 5:41 0
Promotion - Baiano 2 (Play Offs)