Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jadran Luka Ploce vs Kustosija

Croatia Croatia

Prva NL NK Jadran, Luka Ploce
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Zabec D.
46'
Sub
Zilic R. In: Silic R.
Out: Zilic R.
51'
Sub
Vuckovic M. In: Krizmanic T.
Out: Vuckovic M.

AI Match Summary

The Prva NL game between Jadran Luka Ploce and Kustosija finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jadran Luka Ploce.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Jadran Luka Ploce
20%
Draws
23%
Kustosija
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jadran Luka Ploce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Jadran Luka Ploce carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Jadran Luka Ploce taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Jadran Luka Ploce have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Jadran Luka Ploce Clean Sheet 68%
Kustosija Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jadran Luka Ploce Kustosija
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 4 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Prva NL
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Kustosija
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Druga NL
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Kustosija
2:0
Sep 12, 2025 Druga NL
Kustosija vs Jadran Luka Ploce
0:2
May 2, 2025 Druga NL
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Kustosija
4:1
Oct 31, 2024 Druga NL
Kustosija vs Jadran Luka Ploce
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jadran Luka Ploce Compare

Top Goalscorer Maric M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Kustosija Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jadran Luka Ploce 95 / 100
Kustosija 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jadran Luka Ploce Kustosija

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jadran Luka Ploce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jadran Luka Ploce's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Kustosija has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Jadran Luka Ploce stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jadran Luka Ploce VS Kustosija
1.71 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
57% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jadran Luka Ploce

(Home)
26 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 0
Kustosija
19 Sept
Vukovar 1991
2 : 3
Jadran Luka Ploce
12 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 0
Orijent
06 Sept
Bijelo Brdo
1 : 0
Jadran Luka Ploce
02 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 1
Dubrava Zagreb
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Kustosija

(Away)
26 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 0
Kustosija
20 Sept
Kustosija
1 : 0
Croatia Zmijavci
16 Sept
Kustosija
1 : 2
Bijelo Brdo
12 Sept
Cibalia
0 : 0
Kustosija
06 Sept
Kustosija
0 : 1
Dinamo Zagreb 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jadran Luka Ploce 7 4 2 1 12:7 14
2 Croatia Zmijavci 7 4 1 2 11:6 13
3 Cibalia 7 3 4 0 7:4 13
4 Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 8:6 13
5 Segesta 7 3 2 2 9:8 11
6 Mladost Zdralovi 7 3 2 2 6:6 11
7 Sesvete 7 3 0 4 9:8 9
8 Dinamo Zagreb 2 7 3 0 4 11:11 9
9 Dugopolje 7 2 3 2 9:9 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 6:7 8
11 Karlovac 7 2 2 3 8:10 8
12 Orijent 7 2 2 3 6:8 8
13 Vukovar 1991 7 2 2 3 11:14 8
14 Opatija 7 2 1 4 8:10 7
15 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7:12 7
16 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 3:5 6
Promotion - HNL 2027/2028 (Main)