Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jadran Luka Ploce vs Marsonia

Croatia Croatia

Druga NL 2024/2025 NK Jadran, Luka Ploce
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Luetic K.
31' Event
Silic N.
38' Event
Silic N.

AI Match Summary

The Druga NL 2024/2025 game between Jadran Luka Ploce and Marsonia finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jadran Luka Ploce.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Jadran Luka Ploce
15%
Draws
40%
Marsonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jadran Luka Ploce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Jadran Luka Ploce carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Jadran Luka Ploce are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Jadran Luka Ploce Clean Sheet 20%
Marsonia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jadran Luka Ploce Marsonia
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 10
Draws 5 1
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.81 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.16 2.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2025 Druga NL
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Marsonia
4:1
Oct 19, 2024 Druga NL
Marsonia vs Jadran Luka Ploce
1:1
Apr 20, 2024 Druga NL
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Marsonia
2:3
Oct 14, 2023 Druga NL
Marsonia vs Jadran Luka Ploce
1:1
May 27, 2023 Druga NL
Marsonia vs Jadran Luka Ploce
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jadran Luka Ploce Compare

Top Goalscorer Luetic K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Silic N.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Marsonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rados M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jadran Luka Ploce 85 / 100
Marsonia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jadran Luka Ploce Marsonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jadran Luka Ploce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jadran Luka Ploce found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Marsonia let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Jadran Luka Ploce has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Jadran Luka Ploce VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jadran Luka Ploce

(Home)
26 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 0
Kustosija
19 Sept
Vukovar 1991
2 : 3
Jadran Luka Ploce
12 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 0
Orijent
06 Sept
Bijelo Brdo
1 : 0
Jadran Luka Ploce
02 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 1
Dubrava Zagreb
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Marsonia

(Away)
27 Aug
Slavonija Pozega
1 : 0
Marsonia
31 May
Jadran Porec
1 : 2
Marsonia
24 May
Marsonia
5 : 0
Trnje
16 May
Karlovac
6 : 0
Marsonia
10 May
Marsonia
3 : 1
Bjelovar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hrvace 30 20 4 6 71:41 64
2 Karlovac 30 19 5 6 50:20 62
3 Jadran Luka Ploce 30 16 7 7 62:38 55
4 Mladost Zdralovi 30 16 7 7 55:32 55
5 Solin 30 17 3 10 54:33 54
6 Bjelovar 30 16 6 8 56:37 54
7 Radnik Krizevci 30 14 6 10 49:37 48
8 Kustosija 30 13 9 8 51:40 48
9 Uljanik Pula 30 10 6 14 41:45 36
10 Trnje 30 9 8 13 40:53 35
11 Segesta 30 10 4 16 50:69 34
12 Dragovoljac 30 9 5 16 36:45 32
13 Marsonia 30 10 1 19 40:75 31
14 Dugo Selo 30 8 6 16 45:60 30
15 Grobnican 30 8 4 18 33:59 28
16 Jadran Porec 30 3 3 24 25:74 12
Promotion - Prva NL 2025/2026 (Main)
Promotion - Prva NL 2024/2025 (Relegation)
Relegation - Druga NL 2024/2025 (Relegation)