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Jaen vs Alaves B - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria, Jaén
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Morcillo D.
41' Event
Siverio M.
58' Event
Hernandez I.

AI Match Summary

Alaves B in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Jaen
20%
Draws
48%
Alaves B
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alaves B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Jaen at 1.43 per game, Alaves B at 1.41.
  • Alaves B are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Alaves B, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Jaen Clean Sheet 18%
Alaves B Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaen Alaves B
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 17
Draws 7 7
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.43 1.41
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Alaves B vs Jaen
0:2
May 10, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Jaen vs Alaves B
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Siverio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Alaves B Compare

Top Goalscorer Morcillo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaen 23 / 100
Alaves B 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaen Alaves B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaen found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Jaen remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Alaves B conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Jaen VS Alaves B
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaen

(Home)
03 Oct
Hercules
0 : 0
Jaen
27 Sept
Antequera
2 : 0
Jaen
19 Sept
Jaen
2 : 1
UD Ibiza
12 Sept
Teruel
0 : 1
Jaen
06 Sept
Jaen
2 : 2
Huesca
Page 1 of 6

Alaves B

(Away)
03 Oct
Portugalete
0 : 2
Alaves B
27 Sept
Arosa SC
2 : 5
Alaves B
20 Sept
Alaves B
3 : 1
Real Oviedo B
13 Sept
Llanera
1 : 2
Alaves B
05 Sept
Alaves B
0 : 2
Coruxo FC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Alaves B 2
Jaen 3
Baleares 4
Coruxo FC 1
Deportiva Minera 0
CD Coria 1
Real Oviedo B 3
Tudelano 1
UD Logrones 4
Getafe B 1
San Sebastian Reyes 3
Alcoyano 1
UD Ourense 2
Reus FC Reddis 1
Conquense 1
Xerez CD 1
Aguilas FC 4
Utebo FC 2
UD Poblense 3
Numancia 1
Final
Jaen 4
Baleares 2
CD Coria 4
Real Oviedo B 0
UD Logrones 2
San Sebastian Reyes 1
UD Ourense 3
Conquense 0
Aguilas FC 2
UD Poblense 1