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Jaen vs Alaves B

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria, Jaén
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Morcillo D.
41' Event
Siverio M.
58' Event
Hernandez I.

AI Match Summary

Alaves B in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Jaen
33%
Draws
27%
Alaves B
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Jaen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jaen lately — more wins on the board than Alaves B.
  • Jaen are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Jaen have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Alaves B, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Jaen Clean Sheet 68%
Alaves B Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaen Alaves B
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 8 10
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Alaves B vs Jaen
0:2
May 10, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Jaen vs Alaves B
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Siverio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Alaves B Compare

Top Goalscorer Morcillo D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hernandez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaen 50 / 100
Alaves B 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaen Alaves B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JAE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaen found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Jaen has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Alaves B conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Jaen VS Alaves B
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaen

(Home)
01 Aug
Linares
0 : 2
Jaen
24 Jul
Cacereno
1 : 1
Jaen
31 May
Baleares
1 : 2
Jaen
24 May
Jaen
2 : 1
Baleares
17 May
Alaves B
0 : 2
Jaen
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Alaves B

(Away)
17 May
Alaves B
0 : 2
Jaen
10 May
Jaen
1 : 2
Alaves B
03 May
Gernika Club
0 : 0
Alaves B
26 Apr
Tudelano
1 : 2
Alaves B
18 Apr
Alaves B
3 : 0
SD Ejea
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Alaves B 2
Jaen 3
Baleares 4
Coruxo FC 1
Deportiva Minera 0
CD Coria 1
Real Oviedo B 3
Tudelano 1
UD Logrones 4
Getafe B 1
San Sebastian Reyes 3
Alcoyano 1
UD Ourense 2
Reus FC Reddis 1
Conquense 1
Xerez CD 1
Aguilas FC 4
Utebo FC 2
UD Poblense 3
Numancia 1
Final
Jaen 4
Baleares 2
CD Coria 4
Real Oviedo B 0
UD Logrones 2
San Sebastian Reyes 1
UD Ourense 3
Conquense 0
Aguilas FC 2
UD Poblense 1