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Jaen vs La Union (Malacitano)

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Cabello M.

AI Match Summary

Jaen in this Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jaen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Jaen
15%
Draws
32%
La Union (Malacitano)
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jaen lately — more wins on the board than La Union (Malacitano).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Jaen Clean Sheet 68%
La Union (Malacitano) Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaen La Union (Malacitano)
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 8 3
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.3 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.46 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Jaen vs La Union (Malacitano)
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
La Union (Malacitano) vs Jaen
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabello M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.73

La Union (Malacitano) Compare

Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaen 41 / 100
La Union (Malacitano) 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaen La Union (Malacitano)

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

La Union (Malacitano) let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Jaen scored in 79% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Jaen stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jaen VS La Union (Malacitano)
1.5 Goals Scored 1.57
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.43
88% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaen

(Home)
06 Aug
Jaen
1 : 2
Cordoba
01 Aug
Linares
0 : 2
Jaen
24 Jul
Cacereno
1 : 1
Jaen
31 May
Baleares
1 : 2
Jaen
24 May
Jaen
2 : 1
Baleares
Page 1 of 7

La Union (Malacitano)

(Away)
03 May
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0
Puente Genil
26 Apr
CD Extremadura
4 : 2
La Union (Malacitano)
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1
UCAM Murcia
12 Apr
Jaen
1 : 0
La Union (Malacitano)
04 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0
La Union (Malacitano)
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 17 12 5 54:38 63
2 Deportiva Minera 34 19 6 9 50:33 63
3 Aguilas FC 34 18 7 9 45:25 61
4 Xerez CD 34 17 8 9 32:24 59
5 Jaen 34 16 10 8 43:33 58
6 Recreativo Huelva 34 16 9 9 41:25 57
7 UCAM Murcia 34 16 7 11 49:41 55
8 Linares 34 11 14 9 42:45 47
9 La Union (Malacitano) 34 13 6 15 44:43 45
10 Lorca Deportiva 34 12 9 13 32:36 45
11 Yeclano 34 12 8 14 33:33 44
12 Antoniano 34 12 8 14 38:40 44
13 CD Estepona 34 12 8 14 40:44 44
14 Puente Genil 34 10 10 14 28:37 40
15 Xerez Deportivo FC 34 8 12 14 34:43 36
16 Melilla 34 7 13 14 36:40 34
17 Almeria B 34 4 9 21 26:53 21
18 Malaga B 34 5 6 23 32:66 21
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)