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Stadium Background

Jagiellonia II vs Sokol Ostroda

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 Chorten Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Moscicki L.
48' Event
Czerech P.
77' Event
Orpik J.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 game between Jagiellonia II and Sokol Ostroda finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jagiellonia II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Jagiellonia II
40%
Draws
29%
Sokol Ostroda
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Jagiellonia II carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Jagiellonia II Clean Sheet 20%
Sokol Ostroda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jagiellonia II Sokol Ostroda
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.63 0
Goals Conceded 0.75 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Jagiellonia II vs Sokol Ostroda
3:1
Oct 15, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Jagiellonia II
3:2
Apr 22, 2017 III Liga - Group I
Sokol Ostroda vs Jagiellonia II
3:0
Sep 11, 2016 III Liga - Group I
Jagiellonia II vs Sokol Ostroda
1:1
Apr 16, 2016 III Liga - Group V
Sokol Ostroda vs Jagiellonia II
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jagiellonia II Compare

Top Goalscorer Czerech P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Orpik J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sokol Ostroda Compare

Top Goalscorer Moscicki L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jagiellonia II 32 / 100
Sokol Ostroda 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jagiellonia II Sokol Ostroda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sokol Ostroda let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

Jagiellonia II found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Jagiellonia II stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jagiellonia II VS Sokol Ostroda
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1LKS Lodz II34208676:4168
2Legionowo341810671:4364
3Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki341810662:3964
4Swit Mazowiecki34187966:4561
5Legia II341510966:4855
6Tomaszow Mazowiecki341510951:4355
7Unia Skierniewice341581141:3853
8MKS Mlawa341571283:7152
9Jagiellonia II3413101165:5449
10Pilica Bialobrzegi341291353:5545
11Pelikan341291356:5245
12Sokol Ostroda341061849:7136
13Olimpia Zambrow34991640:6336
14Bron Radom34981760:7635
15Warta Sieradz348101639:5334
16Concordia Elblag34891738:6133
17Blonianka Blonie34862035:6830
18Ursus Warszawa345101942:7225