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Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna, Tuxtla Gutiérrez
Jaguares De Chiapas Logo

Jaguares De Chiapas

1 - 3
FT
Tapachula Logo

Tapachula

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Agualimpia C.
45' Event
Vazquez A.
(Penalty)
74' Event
Penalty Missed
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 game between Jaguares De Chiapas and Tapachula finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tapachula.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Jaguares De Chiapas
15%
Draws
26%
Tapachula
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaguares De Chiapas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Jaguares De Chiapas haven't matched Tapachula's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Jaguares De Chiapas's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Jaguares De Chiapas Clean Sheet 19%
Tapachula Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaguares De Chiapas Tapachula
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 5 1
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.31 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula
1:3
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula vs Jaguares De Chiapas
1:2
Apr 13, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula vs Jaguares De Chiapas
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula
2:3
Dec 1, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A
Jaguares De Chiapas vs Tapachula
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaguares De Chiapas Compare

Top Goalscorer Agualimpia C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Tapachula Compare

Top Goalscorer De Leon N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaguares De Chiapas 85 / 100
Tapachula 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaguares De Chiapas Tapachula

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaguares De Chiapas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tapachula has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Jaguares De Chiapas found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Solid form: Jaguares De Chiapas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaguares De Chiapas VS Tapachula
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaguares De Chiapas

(Home)
06 Oct
Celaya
0 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
29 Sept
Jaguares De Chiapas
1 : 1
Racing de Veracruz
12 Sept
Deportiva Venados
2 : 0
Jaguares De Chiapas
06 Sept
Jaguares De Chiapas
2 : 3
Montaneses
29 Aug
Chapulineros
0 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
Page 1 of 6

Tapachula

(Away)
03 Oct
Tapachula
2 : 3
Chapulineros
19 Sept
Pioneros
5 : 1
Tapachula
12 Sept
Tapachula
2 : 0
Inter Playa Del Carmen
06 Sept
Celaya
2 : 0
Tapachula
29 Aug
Tapachula
0 : 4
Racing de Veracruz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alacranes de Durango 26 21 2 3 71:16 74
2 Tigres de Alica 26 17 3 6 46:25 56
3 Cimarrones de Sonora 26 15 7 4 46:19 54
4 Leones Negros 2 26 16 2 8 42:26 53
5 Tecos 26 14 4 8 49:34 49
6 Tritones Vallarta 26 15 1 10 32:27 46
7 Mineros de Fresnillo 26 11 4 11 40:41 39
8 Los Cabos United 26 11 3 12 37:40 37
9 Guerreros de Autlan 26 8 5 13 38:42 32
10 UA Zacatecas 26 8 4 14 32:49 29
11 Ensenada FC 26 8 2 16 30:55 28
12 Reboceros de La Piedad 26 7 1 18 39:66 23
13 Zapotlanejo 26 6 1 19 39:73 21
14 Colima FC 26 4 3 19 24:52 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Apodaca 26 21 2 3 47:19 66
2 FC Santiago 26 14 7 5 43:21 51
3 Zacatepec 26 12 8 6 29:15 45
4 Halcones de Zapopan 26 11 6 9 44:27 44
5 Calor De San Pedro 26 12 7 7 37:26 44
6 Gavilanes de Matamoros 26 12 5 9 31:22 44
7 Lobos ULMX 26 11 6 9 33:28 40
8 Correcaminos 2 26 9 7 10 27:25 36
9 Chilpancingo 26 9 8 9 33:41 35
10 Cordobes FC 26 8 6 12 29:30 30
11 Zitacuaro 26 6 10 10 22:31 28
12 CS Canamy 26 5 8 13 33:53 26
13 Ciervos 26 4 4 18 20:50 18
14 Atletico Hidalgo 26 4 4 18 22:62 16
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 24 21 3 0 55:9 71
2 Deportiva Venados 24 15 4 5 61:25 52
3 Tapachula 24 13 0 11 51:35 44
4 Celaya 24 12 4 8 42:32 43
5 Inter Playa Del Carmen 24 13 4 7 35:28 42
6 Montaneses 24 12 2 10 35:28 38
7 Pioneros 24 10 3 11 35:35 35
8 Jaguares De Chiapas 24 9 4 11 33:32 34
9 Heroes de Zaci 24 10 2 12 33:46 34
10 Chapulineros 24 5 8 11 21:33 23
11 Canoneros FC 24 7 1 16 25:49 22
12 Neza FC 24 5 2 17 25:73 19
13 Dragones Toluca 24 4 3 17 21:47 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)