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Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tamaulipas
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Rios A.
17' Event
Perez E.
18'
Peralta J.

AI Match Summary

Jaiba Brava in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jaiba Brava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Jaiba Brava
39%
Draws
31%
Atletico La Paz
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jaiba Brava lately — more wins on the board than Atletico La Paz.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Jaiba Brava have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 20%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaiba Brava Atletico La Paz
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 6 13
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:2
Apr 23, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0
Mar 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Jaiba Brava
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
3:2
Feb 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Atletico La Paz
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaiba Brava Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedroza M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Atletico La Paz Compare

Top Goalscorer Alaffita Garcia E. J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Torres H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaiba Brava 31 / 100
Atletico La Paz 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaiba Brava Atletico La Paz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JAI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaiba Brava found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

Atletico La Paz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Jaiba Brava remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaiba Brava VS Atletico La Paz
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atlante1493235:1030
2Cancun1493225:730
3Jaiba Brava1486024:1530
4Irapuato1465323:1923
5Zacatecas Mineros1456326:2421
6Leones Negros1463519:1721
7Club Atletico Morelia1454519:2119
8Tepatitlan de Morelos1446421:1618
9Venados FC1453629:3018
10Atletico La Paz1445525:3017
11Tapatio1443720:1815
12Tlaxcala1435614:2714
13Alebrijes de Oaxaca1434716:2513
14Correcaminos1424816:3510
15Dorados de Sinaloa1412118:265