Sport Picks
Jaiba Brava vs Tepatitlan de Morelos Prediction & H2H Stats
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tamaulipas, Tampico-Ciudad Madero 
Match Events
13'
13'
Torres E.
Assist: Peralta J.
21'
21'
Aguilar D.
45'
45'
Escoboza A.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-3, with Jaiba Brava advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaiba Brava
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Jaiba Brava carry the better recent record into this one.
- Jaiba Brava are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Jaiba Brava have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Jaiba Brava, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Jaiba Brava Clean Sheet 68%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jaiba Brava | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.27 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.31 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava
3:1
May 31, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
4:3
May 24, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava
3:1
May 17, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava
1:0
May 10, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Jaiba Brava vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jaiba Brava Compare
Top Goalscorer Torres E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rios A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Escoto A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Gonzalez K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jaiba Brava 95 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jaiba Brava Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jaiba Brava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Jaiba Brava found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
Tepatitlan de Morelos let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.
Away concern: Tepatitlan de Morelos has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Jaiba Brava VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Jaiba Brava
(Home) 26 Sept
Correcaminos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
30 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
2 : 0 Jaiba Brava
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Dorados de Sinaloa
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
23 Aug
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
09 Aug
Jaiba Brava
3 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
26 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Piratas
Page 1 of 4
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 Aug
Correcaminos
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
Final
Jaiba Brava 5
Tepatitlan de Morelos 6
