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Jamaica vs Honduras - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Independence Park (National), Kingston
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Match Events

12'
Sub
Cephas R. In: Campbell T.
Out: Cephas R.
14' Event
Figueroa K.
Assist: Toro J.
27'
Cover B.

AI Match Summary

Honduras in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Honduras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Jamaica
30%
Draws
23%
Honduras
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jamaica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Jamaica have won more games recently than Honduras.
  • Model gives Jamaica a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Jamaica Clean Sheet 68%
Honduras Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jamaica Honduras
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Honduras vs Jamaica
1:1
Sep 29, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Jamaica vs Honduras
0:1
Oct 15, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Jamaica vs Honduras
0:0
Sep 11, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Honduras vs Jamaica
1:2
Sep 9, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Jamaica vs Honduras
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jamaica Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Honduras Compare

Top Goalscorer Figueroa K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jamaica 50 / 100
Honduras 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jamaica Honduras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jamaica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jamaica's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Jamaica went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Honduras has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

Jamaica VS Honduras
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jamaica

(Home)
06 Oct
Honduras
1 : 1
Jamaica
03 Oct
El Salvador
0 : 2
Jamaica
29 Sept
Jamaica
0 : 1
Honduras
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
06 Jun
Jamaica
1 : 1
South Africa
Page 1 of 7

Honduras

(Away)
06 Oct
Honduras
1 : 1
Jamaica
03 Oct
Martinique
2 : 1
Honduras
29 Sept
Jamaica
0 : 1
Honduras
26 Sept
Honduras
2 : 3
Suriname
07 Jun
Argentina
2 : 0
Honduras
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Curacao 4 3 1 0 12:5 10
2 Haiti 4 3 0 1 9:5 9
3 Dominican Republic 4 3 0 1 8:8 9
4 Costa Rica 4 2 0 2 8:6 6
5 Trinidad & Tobago 4 0 1 3 4:7 1
6 Nicaragua 4 0 0 4 4:14 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guatemala 4 2 1 1 9:3 7
2 Jamaica 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
3 Suriname 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
4 Honduras 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
5 Martinique 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
6 El Salvador 4 1 1 2 4:10 4
Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League A - Play Offs)