Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan U17 vs Tajikistan U17

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U17 2026 King Abdullah Sports City Training Stadium (Pitch C), Jeddah
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Kitahara M.
Assist: Iwatsuchi S.
44'
Kurahashi Y.
46'
Sub
Kurahashi Y. In: Kumada Y.
Out: Kurahashi Y.

AI Match Summary

Japan U17 in this AFC Asian Cup U17 2026 tie, finishing 5-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Japan U17
15%
Draws
27%
Tajikistan U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan U17 have won more games recently than Tajikistan U17.
  • Model gives Japan U17 a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Japan U17 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U17, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Japan U17 Clean Sheet 20%
Tajikistan U17 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U17 Tajikistan U17
Matches Played 33 32
Wins 21 16
Draws 3 6
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.48 2.72
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.12 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U17
Japan U17 vs Tajikistan U17
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kitahara M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saito K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 1.06

Tajikistan U17 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U17 85 / 100
Tajikistan U17 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U17 Tajikistan U17

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U17 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U17's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Japan U17 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Tajikistan U17 let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan U17 VS Tajikistan U17
1.38 Goals Scored 1.43
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.86
75% Over 1.5 86%
63% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U17

(Home)
22 May
China U17
2 : 3
Japan U17
19 May
Japan U17
2 : 1
Uzbekistan U17
15 May
Japan U17
5 : 0
Tajikistan U17
12 May
Japan U17
3 : 1
Indonesia U17
09 May
China U17
1 : 2
Japan U17
Page 1 of 7

Tajikistan U17

(Away)
15 May
Japan U17
5 : 0
Tajikistan U17
12 May
Saudi Arabia U17
5 : 5
Tajikistan U17
09 May
Myanmar U17
0 : 1
Tajikistan U17
05 May
Tajikistan U17
2 : 0
Thailand U17
11 Nov
Burkina Faso U17
2 : 0
Tajikistan U17
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Saudi Arabia U17 1
China U17 3
Vietnam U17 0
Australia U17 3
Japan U17 5
Tajikistan U17 0
Uzbekistan U17 3
South Korea U17 2
Semi-finals
China U17 2
Australia U17 0
Japan U17 2
Uzbekistan U17 1
Final
China U17 2
Japan U17 3