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Stadium Background

Japan U17 W vs New Zealand U17 W

World World

World Cup Women U17 2025 Mohammed VI Football Academy (pitch 3), Salé
Japan U17 W Logo

Japan U17 W

3 - 0
FT
New Zealand U17 W Logo

New Zealand U17 W

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Aoki Y.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Aoki Y.
Penalty Missed
46'
Sub
Sato M. In: Shikida N.
Out: Sato M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Japan U17 W in this World Cup Women U17 2025 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Japan U17 W
15%
Draws
7%
New Zealand U17 W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U17 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • New Zealand U17 W haven't matched Japan U17 W's recent run of results.
  • Japan U17 W are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Japan U17 W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U17 W, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • History favors Japan U17 W here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 52.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Japan U17 W Clean Sheet 20%
New Zealand U17 W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U17 W New Zealand U17 W
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 21 10
Draws 4 3
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 2.73 2.53
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.96 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2025 World Cup Women U17
Japan U17 W vs New Zealand U17 W
3:0
Nov 24, 2018 World Cup Women U17
Japan U17 W vs New Zealand U17 W
1:2
Mar 23, 2014 World Cup Women U17
Japan U17 W vs New Zealand U17 W
3:0
Sep 26, 2012 World Cup Women U17
New Zealand U17 W vs Japan U17 W
0:3
Sep 13, 2010 World Cup Women U17
Japan U17 W vs New Zealand U17 W
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U17 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Fukushima N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shikida N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.28
Avg xA / game 1.48

New Zealand U17 W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.33

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U17 W 85 / 100
New Zealand U17 W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U17 W New Zealand U17 W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U17 W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U17 W found the back of the net in 88% of recent matches (33 games).

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

New Zealand U17 W has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Japan U17 W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Japan U17 W VS New Zealand U17 W
2.25 Goals Scored 0.33
0.88 Goals Conceded 3.67
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U17 W

(Home)
06 Jul
Japan U17 W
2 : 1
USA U17 W
03 Jul
Japan U17 W
5 : 3
USA U17 W
17 May
North Korea U17 W
5 : 1
Japan U17 W
14 May
Japan U17 W
4 : 0
Australia U17 W
11 May
Japan U17 W
1 : 0
South Korea U17 W
Page 1 of 7

New Zealand U17 W

(Away)
25 Oct
New Zealand U17 W
0 : 4
Zambia U17 W
22 Oct
Paraguay U17 W
4 : 1
New Zealand U17 W
19 Oct
Japan U17 W
3 : 0
New Zealand U17 W
22 Oct
Ecuador U17 W
4 : 0
New Zealand U17 W
19 Oct
Dominican Republic U17 W
1 : 1
New Zealand U17 W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Italy U17 W 3 3 0 0 10:4 9
2 Brazil U17 W 3 1 1 1 7:5 4
3 Morocco U17 W 3 1 0 2 4:7 3
4 Costa Rica U17 W 3 0 1 2 2:7 1
Promotion - World Cup Women U17 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 North Korea U17 W 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Mexico U17 W 3 2 0 1 2:2 6
3 Netherlands U17 W 3 1 0 2 4:9 3
4 Cameroon U17 W 3 0 0 3 4:7 0
Promotion - World Cup Women U17 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 USA U17 W 3 3 0 0 13:2 9
2 China U17 W 3 2 0 1 11:5 6
3 Ecuador U17 W 3 1 0 2 2:7 3
4 Norway U17 W 3 0 0 3 0:12 0
Promotion - World Cup Women U17 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Canada U17 W 3 3 0 0 12:2 9
2 France U17 W 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
3 Nigeria U17 W 3 1 0 2 5:5 3
4 Samoa U17 W 3 0 0 3 2:14 0
Promotion - World Cup Women U17 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain U17 W 3 3 0 0 12:0 9
2 Colombia U17 W 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 South Korea U17 W 3 0 1 2 1:7 1
4 Ivory Coast U17 W 3 0 1 2 1:7 1
Promotion - World Cup Women U17 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan U17 W 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
2 Paraguay U17 W 3 2 1 0 7:3 7
3 Zambia U17 W 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
4 New Zealand U17 W 3 0 0 3 1:11 0
Promotion - World Cup Women U17 2025 (Play Offs)