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Stadium Background

Japan U23 vs Mali U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2024 Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Hirakawa Y.
9'
Diomande A.
34' Event
Sangare M.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Japan U23 and Mali U23 finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mali U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Japan U23
20%
Draws
38%
Mali U23
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Japan U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Japan U23 a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Mali U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 Mali U23
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 24 14
Draws 3 6
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 2.27 1.59
Goals Conceded 0.47 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2024 Friendly International
Japan U23 vs Mali U23
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Hirakawa Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Mali U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sangare M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tounkara M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 86 / 100
Mali U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 Mali U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U23 scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Mali U23 let in goals in 63% of their last 27 matches.

Recent resilience: Japan U23 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS Mali U23
3 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
03 Oct
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Japan U23
30 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
1 : 2
Japan U23
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
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Mali U23

(Away)
01 Oct
Morocco U23
1 : 1
Mali U23
18 Nov
Indonesia U23
2 : 2
Mali U23
15 Nov
Indonesia U23
0 : 3
Mali U23
19 Jul
FC Bobigny 93
0 : 3
Mali U23
06 Jul
Mali U23
1 : 0
Mali U20
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