Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan U23 vs Qatar U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

2 - 0
FT
Qatar U23 Logo

Qatar U23

Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Mugib A.
6'
Abweny A.
24'
Al Ghareeb H.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Japan U23
20%
Draws
9%
Qatar U23
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Japan U23 come out ahead of Qatar U23 on wins alone.
  • Japan U23 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Japan U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Japan U23 have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 20%
Qatar U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 Qatar U23
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 24 16
Draws 3 7
Losses 3 13
Goals Scored 2.63 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 13, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs Qatar U23
2:0
Apr 25, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
Qatar U23 vs Japan U23
2:4
Sep 20, 2023 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs Qatar U23
3:1
Mar 26, 2022 Friendly International
Qatar U23 vs Japan U23
0:2
Jan 15, 2020 AFC Asian Cup U23
Qatar U23 vs Japan U23
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Furuya S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sato R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Qatar U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 85 / 100
Qatar U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 Qatar U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U23 scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Japan U23 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Qatar U23 conceded in 69% of 36 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS Qatar U23
2.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
16 Jan
Japan U23
2 : 1
Jordan U23
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Qatar U23

(Away)
18 Sept
Saudi Arabia U23
2 : 0
Qatar U23
15 Sept
Qatar U23
1 : 4
South Korea U23
06 Sept
Al-Waab
1 : 1
Qatar U23
31 Aug
Al Bidda
2 : 0
Qatar U23
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam U23 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 Jordan U23 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Saudi Arabia U23 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
4 Kyrgyzstan U23 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan U23 3 3 0 0 10:0 9
2 United Arab Emirates U23 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
3 Syria U23 3 1 1 1 2:6 4
4 Qatar U23 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uzbekistan U23 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 South Korea U23 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
3 Lebanon U23 3 1 0 2 5:7 3
4 Iran U23 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Australia U23 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
2 China U23 3 1 2 0 1:0 5
3 Iraq U23 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 Thailand U23 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)