Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan U23 vs South Korea U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

1 - 0
FT
South Korea U23 Logo

South Korea U23

Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Koizumi K.
58'
Sub
Kim Yong-Hak In: Jung Seung-Bae
Out: Kim Yong-Hak
58'
Sub
Baek Ga-On In: Kim T.
Out: Baek Ga-On
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Japan U23
15%
Draws
38%
South Korea U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan U23 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Japan U23 a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Japan U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor South Korea U23, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
South Korea U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 South Korea U23
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 23 17
Draws 3 3
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2.45 1.8
Goals Conceded 0.62 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 20, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs South Korea U23
1:0
Apr 22, 2024 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs South Korea U23
0:1
Oct 7, 2023 Asian Games
South Korea U23 vs Japan U23
2:1
Jun 12, 2022 AFC Asian Cup U23
South Korea U23 vs Japan U23
0:3
Sep 1, 2018 Asian Games
South Korea U23 vs Japan U23
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Koizumi K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

South Korea U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 95 / 100
South Korea U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 South Korea U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Japan U23 scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Japan U23 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

South Korea U23 has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS South Korea U23
2.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
16 Sept
Japan U23
2 : 0
Hong Kong U23
24 Jan
China U23
0 : 4
Japan U23
20 Jan
Japan U23
1 : 0
South Korea U23
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South Korea U23

(Away)
25 Sept
South Korea U23
4 : 0
Vietnam U23
22 Sept
South Korea U23
2 : 0
Saudi Arabia U23
15 Sept
Qatar U23
1 : 4
South Korea U23
09 Jun
South Korea U23
0 : 1
Kyrgyzstan U23
06 Jun
Thailand U23
2 : 3
South Korea U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Vietnam U23 3
United Arab Emirates U23 2
Uzbekistan U23 0
China U23 1
Japan U23 2
Jordan U23 1
Australia U23 1
South Korea U23 2
Semi-finals
Vietnam U23 0
China U23 3
Japan U23 1
South Korea U23 0
Final
China U23 0
Japan U23 4
Vietnam U23 3
South Korea U23 2