Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Japan vs Iceland

World World

Friendly International New National Stadium, Tokyo
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Sub
Yoshida M. In: Ito H.
Out: Yoshida M.
33'
Hlynsson K.
46'
Sub
Doan R. In: Sugawara Y.
Out: Doan R.

AI Match Summary

Japan in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Japan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Japan
35%
Draws
18%
Iceland
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan have won more games recently than Iceland.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Japan taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Japan here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Japan Clean Sheet 68%
Iceland Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan Iceland
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 19 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 2.43 1.46
Goals Conceded 0.57 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Friendly International
Japan vs Iceland
1:0
Feb 24, 2012 Friendly International
Japan vs Iceland
3:1
May 30, 2004 Friendly International
Iceland vs Japan
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogawa K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Iceland Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 95 / 100
Iceland 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan Iceland

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.

Iceland has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Japan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS Iceland
1.88 Goals Scored 0.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
21 Jun
Tunisia
0 : 4
Japan
14 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 2
Japan
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Iceland

(Away)
26 Sept
Iceland
1 : 1
Estonia
10 Jun
Argentina
3 : 0
Iceland
31 May
Japan
1 : 0
Iceland
31 Mar
Haiti
1 : 1
Iceland
28 Mar
Canada
2 : 2
Iceland
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