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Jaragua-SC vs Hercilio Luz Prediction & H2H Stats

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Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Daniel
90' Event
Alan James

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Jaragua-SC and Hercilio Luz finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hercilio Luz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Jaragua-SC
15%
Draws
85%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Hercilio Luz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Jaragua-SC Clean Sheet 20%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaragua-SC Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 3 17
Draws 4 5
Losses 21 8
Goals Scored 0.54 1.73
Goals Conceded 3.18 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 Catarinense 2
Jaragua-SC vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
Apr 28, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Jaragua-SC
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaragua-SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Daniel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alan James
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaragua-SC 10 / 100
Hercilio Luz 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaragua-SC Hercilio Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Jaragua-SC's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Difficult form: Hercilio Luz registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jaragua-SC VS Hercilio Luz
0.25 Goals Scored 2
4.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaragua-SC

(Home)
25 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Blumenau
22 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
7 : 0
Jaragua-SC
18 Jul
CA Metropolitano
6 : 1
Jaragua-SC
15 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 2
Nacao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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Hercilio Luz

(Away)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)