Sport Picks
Match Events
29'
29'
Haida M.
58'
58'
Attahiri M.
79'
79'
Bernal J.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
20%
10%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jaraiz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Jaraiz lately — more wins on the board than Montehermoso.
- Win probability leans Jaraiz's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 68%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jaraiz | Montehermoso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 5 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Montehermoso
2:2
Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Jaraiz
0:3
Aug 28, 2024 Club Friendly
Jaraiz vs Montehermoso
1:1
Mar 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Jaraiz
0:4
Oct 31, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Montehermoso
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jaraiz Compare
Top Goalscorer Haida M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Montehermoso Compare
Top Goalscorer Attahiri M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jaraiz 95 / 100
Montehermoso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jaraiz Montehermoso
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jaraiz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Jaraiz's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Montehermoso has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Solid form: Jaraiz remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Jaraiz VS Montehermoso
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 2.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Jaraiz
(Home) 13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0 Jaraiz
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0 CD Badajoz
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1 Jaraiz
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13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0 CD Badajoz
03 May
Jaraiz
2 : 1 Cabeza del Buey
19 Apr
Jaraiz
1 : 4 CD Badajoz
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Montehermoso
(Away) 10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1 Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3 Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1 Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2 AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0 Montehermoso
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10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1 Montehermoso
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1 Montehermoso
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0 Montehermoso
28 Mar
Montijo
4 : 0 Montehermoso
15 Mar
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Montehermoso
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
