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Jarocin vs Sparta Brodnica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2015/2016
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AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group II 2015/2016 game between Jarocin and Sparta Brodnica finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jarocin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Jarocin
15%
Draws
0%
Sparta Brodnica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jarocin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jarocin come out ahead of Sparta Brodnica on wins alone.
  • Jarocin are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular III Liga - Group II 2015/2016 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Jarocin Clean Sheet 19%
Sparta Brodnica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jarocin Sparta Brodnica
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 4
Draws 5 9
Losses 18 17
Goals Scored 1.25 0.87
Goals Conceded 2.16 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 3.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2016 III Liga - Group II
Jarocin vs Sparta Brodnica
2:1
Oct 3, 2015 III Liga - Group II
Sparta Brodnica vs Jarocin
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jarocin 85 / 100
Sparta Brodnica 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jarocin Sparta Brodnica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jarocin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: Sparta Brodnica has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Sparta Brodnica conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Jarocin stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jarocin VS Sparta Brodnica
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 6
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Jarocin

(Home)
27 Jul
Jarocin
6 : 0
Ostrovia Ostrow
24 Jul
Jarocin
0 : 8
Barycz Sulow
17 Jun
Jarocin
2 : 1
Starogard Gdanski
10 Jun
B. Gdynia
4 : 0
Jarocin
03 Jun
Jarocin
3 : 0
Unia Swarzedz
Page 1 of 7

Sparta Brodnica

(Away)
15 Jul
Notec Czarnkow
6 : 0
Sparta Brodnica
04 Jun
KKS Kalisz
3 : 1
Sparta Brodnica
28 May
Sparta Brodnica
1 : 2
Unia Swarzedz
21 May
Kleczew
7 : 0
Sparta Brodnica
14 May
Sparta Brodnica
1 : 2
Centra Ostrow Wielkopolski
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Warta Poznan 30 18 8 4 57:24 62
2 Pelikan Niechanowo 30 19 5 6 60:28 62
3 Lech Poznan II 30 17 9 4 69:23 60
4 Kleczew 30 15 8 7 63:30 53
5 Jarocin 30 14 9 7 47:27 51
6 Polonia Sroda Wielkopol 30 15 6 9 45:28 51
7 Wda Swiecie 30 14 7 9 37:37 49
8 KKS Kalisz 30 13 6 11 41:41 45
9 Elana Torun 30 13 5 12 51:41 44
10 Unia Swarzedz 30 10 8 12 39:55 38
11 Start Warlubie 30 9 8 13 40:45 35
12 Centra Ostrow Wielkopolski 30 9 4 17 39:67 31
13 Ostrovia Ostrow 30 8 5 17 36:48 29
14 Nielba Wagrowiec 30 6 5 19 32:68 23
15 Sparta Brodnica 30 4 10 16 26:55 22
16 Kujawianka 30 3 3 24 26:91 12
Promotion - III Liga - Group I 2015/2016 (Play Offs)