Sport Picks
Jarocin vs Starogard Gdanski
Poland
III Liga - Group II 2022/2023 
Match Events
21'
21'
Lysiak P.
(Penalty)
39'
39'
Idzikowski D.
87'
87'
Skokowski P.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group II 2022/2023 game between Jarocin and Starogard Gdanski finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jarocin.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jarocin
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Jarocin carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Jarocin a 59% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Jarocin Clean Sheet 10%
Starogard Gdanski Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jarocin | Starogard Gdanski |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 8 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 18 | 24 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.06 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.27 | 2.81 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.88 | 2.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 17, 2023 III Liga - Group II
Jarocin vs Starogard Gdanski
2:1
Mar 15, 2023 III Liga - Group II
Starogard Gdanski vs Jarocin
2:1
May 21, 2022 III Liga - Group II
Starogard Gdanski vs Jarocin
1:3
Oct 16, 2021 III Liga - Group II
Jarocin vs Starogard Gdanski
1:3
Aug 1, 2020 III Liga - Group II
Starogard Gdanski vs Jarocin
2:6
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jarocin Compare
Top Goalscorer Idzikowski D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Skokowski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44
Starogard Gdanski Compare
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jarocin 65 / 100
Starogard Gdanski 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jarocin Starogard Gdanski
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jarocin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Starogard Gdanski conceded in 94% of 32 recent games.
Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.
Jarocin's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Jarocin went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Jarocin VS Starogard Gdanski
3 Goals Scored 0.88
4 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Jarocin
(Home) 27 Jul
Jarocin
6 : 0 Ostrovia Ostrow
24 Jul
Jarocin
0 : 8 Barycz Sulow
17 Jun
Jarocin
2 : 1 Starogard Gdanski
10 Jun
B. Gdynia
4 : 0 Jarocin
03 Jun
Jarocin
3 : 0 Unia Swarzedz
Page 1 of 6
27 Jul
Jarocin
6 : 0 Ostrovia Ostrow
24 Jul
Jarocin
0 : 8 Barycz Sulow
17 Jun
Jarocin
2 : 1 Starogard Gdanski
03 Jun
Jarocin
3 : 0 Unia Swarzedz
20 May
Jarocin
3 : 2 Vineta Wolin
Page 1 of 3
Starogard Gdanski
(Away) 21 Feb
Starogard Gdanski
1 : 1 Cartusia Kartuzy
28 Jan
Unia Swarzedz
2 : 4 Starogard Gdanski
08 Jun
Swinoujscie
2 : 1 Starogard Gdanski
30 May
Starogard Gdanski
1 : 2 Unia Solec Kujawski
25 May
Elana Torun
3 : 0 Starogard Gdanski
Page 1 of 7
28 Jan
Unia Swarzedz
2 : 4 Starogard Gdanski
08 Jun
Swinoujscie
2 : 1 Starogard Gdanski
25 May
Elana Torun
3 : 0 Starogard Gdanski
15 May
Notec Czarnkow
3 : 1 Starogard Gdanski
04 May
Swit Szczecin
3 : 1 Starogard Gdanski
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ol. Grudziadz | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 73:18 | 76 |
| 2 | Pogon Szczecin II | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 69:25 | 69 |
| 3 | Polonia Sroda Wielkopol | 34 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 75:54 | 64 |
| 4 | Zawisza | 34 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 69:45 | 62 |
| 5 | Gedania Gdansk | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 63:59 | 61 |
| 6 | Starogard Gdanski | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 44:35 | 59 |
| 7 | Swit Szczecin | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 61:41 | 55 |
| 8 | Nowe Skalmierzyce | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 9 | Kleczew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 53:48 | 47 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzedz | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 37:42 | 44 |
| 11 | Cartusia Kartuzy | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37:40 | 43 |
| 12 | Blekitni Stargard | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 46:45 | 42 |
| 13 | Stolem Gniewino | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 33:52 | 36 |
| 14 | Vineta Wolin | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 47:66 | 35 |
| 15 | Unia Solec Kujawski | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 40:59 | 35 |
| 16 | Jarocin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41:69 | 33 |
| 17 | B. Gdynia | 34 | 8 | 4 | 22 | 43:70 | 28 |
| 18 | Unia Janikowo | 34 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 17:85 | 10 |
| 19 | Przodkowo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Division 2 2023/2024 (Main)
