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Jelgava vs Riga FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Jelgava Logo

Jelgava

0 - 1
FT
Riga FC Logo

Riga FC

Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Tonisevs M.
29' Event
Iago Siqueira
Assist: Aouani R.
32'
Musah B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Jelgava and Riga FC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Riga FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Jelgava
30%
Draws
43%
Riga FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Riga FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Jelgava haven't matched Riga FC's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Jelgava taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Riga FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 14%
Riga FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Riga FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 21
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 2
Goals Scored 1 2.5
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Riga FC
0:1
Jul 3, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs Jelgava
3:0
May 16, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs Jelgava
2:2
Apr 4, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Riga FC
0:8
Sep 21, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Riga FC
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Riga FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Iago Siqueira
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.89

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 35 / 100
Riga FC 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Riga FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Defensive concern: Riga FC conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Jelgava has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Jelgava scored in 48% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Riga FC
1.17 Goals Scored 2.38
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.5
33% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 75%
33% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Riga FC

(Away)
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)