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Stadium Background

Jelgava vs Tukums 2000 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Zaleiko G.
34' Event
Semesko M.
Assist: Pudil M.
46'
Sub
Enyou A. In: Joksts H.
Out: Enyou A.

AI Match Summary

Jelgava in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jelgava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Jelgava
20%
Draws
29%
Tukums 2000
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jelgava

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Jelgava have won more games recently than Tukums 2000.
  • Win probability leans Jelgava's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 20%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Tukums 2000
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 5
Draws 7 8
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.66 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Jelgava
1:4
Jun 21, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Tukums 2000
4:1
May 1, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Jelgava
5:0
Mar 8, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Tukums 2000
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Jelgava
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Semesko M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pudil M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 85 / 100
Tukums 2000 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Tukums 2000

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jelgava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Jelgava remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Tukums 2000 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Tukums 2000
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Tukums 2000

(Away)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)