Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jelgava vs Tukums 2000

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Zaleiko G.
34' Event
Semesko M.
Assist: Pudil M.
46'
Sub
Enyou A. In: Joksts H.
Out: Enyou A.

AI Match Summary

Jelgava in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jelgava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Jelgava
15%
Draws
85%
Tukums 2000
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tukums 2000

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Jelgava have won more games recently than Tukums 2000.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 18%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Tukums 2000
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 4
Draws 7 10
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 0.9 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Tukums 2000
4:1
May 1, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Jelgava
5:0
Mar 8, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Tukums 2000
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs Jelgava
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Tukums 2000
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Semesko M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pudil M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Tukums 2000 Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 32 / 100
Tukums 2000 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Tukums 2000

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Tukums 2000 has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Jelgava scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Tukums 2000
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
09 Aug
Jelgava
0 : 1
FK Auda Riga
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
Jelgava
26 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 1
RFS
12 Jul
RFS
2 : 0
Jelgava
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Tukums 2000

(Away)
08 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0
Tukums 2000
02 Aug
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
FK Liepaja
27 Jul
Tukums 2000
0 : 1
RFS
18 Jul
Riga FC
3 : 1
Tukums 2000
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 25 21 2 2 62:17 65
2 Riga FC 25 20 4 1 76:21 64
3 FK Auda Riga 24 14 4 6 39:26 46
4 BFC Daugavpils 26 10 6 10 33:31 36
5 FK Liepaja 25 10 4 11 33:37 34
6 Super Nova 24 8 3 13 26:37 27
7 Jelgava 26 6 7 13 25:44 25
8 Grobina 26 4 9 13 18:47 21
9 Tukums 2000 26 4 8 14 40:51 20
10 Ogre United 25 3 5 17 24:65 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)