Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Puebla de la Calzada

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jerez CF play Puebla de la Calzada in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, Jerez CF averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Puebla de la Calzada averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Jerez CF won 1, Puebla de la Calzada won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Feb 25, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Jerez CF and 1.63 for Puebla de la Calzada. This points to a Jerez CF double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Jerez CF

35%

Draws

28%

Puebla de la Calzada

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Jerez CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Jerez CF picked up more points recently compared to Puebla de la Calzada.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%

Jerez CF Clean Sheet 14%

Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Jerez CF	Puebla de la Calzada
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	8	8
Draws	14	10
Losses	8	13
Goals Scored	1.8	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.48
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Jerez CF vs Puebla de la Calzada

Possession: 42% - 52% Cards: 2 - 2

2:2

Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Puebla de la Calzada vs Jerez CF

Possession: 44% - 59% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Feb 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Jerez CF vs Puebla de la Calzada

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Oct 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Puebla de la Calzada vs Jerez CF

Possession: 49% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jerez CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarrassouba B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Sancho J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Top Goalscorer Coronado A. M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Inglesias A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jerez CF 36 / 100

Puebla de la Calzada 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Jerez CF Puebla de la Calzada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jerez CF or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Jerez CF attacking → ← attacking Puebla de la Calzada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerez CF scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Puebla de la Calzada let in goals in 94% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Jerez CF went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Puebla de la Calzada lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 34

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Don Benito	34	21	8	5	70:22	71
2	CD Badajoz	34	23	5	6	64:27	71
3	Moralo	34	17	11	6	54:32	62
4	CD Azuaga	34	18	8	8	53:31	62
5	Jaraiz	34	16	11	7	53:33	59
6	Cabeza del Buey	34	15	12	7	45:29	57
7	SP Villafranca	34	16	7	11	45:40	55
8	Villanovense	34	15	8	11	45:36	53
9	Montijo	34	13	7	14	43:42	46
10	Jerez CF	34	8	17	9	56:51	41
11	AD Llerenense	34	11	8	15	35:44	41
12	Puebla de la Calzada	34	9	11	14	35:48	38
13	Santa Amalia	34	9	7	18	30:52	34
14	Gevora	34	8	9	17	32:53	33
15	Pueblonuevo	34	9	6	19	29:55	33
16	CD Diocesano	34	6	12	16	33:63	30
17	Montehermoso	34	5	8	21	24:66	23
18	CD Calamonte	34	3	13	18	25:47	22