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Johvi Phoenix vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Johvi Phoenix play Parnu JK Vaprus U21 in the Esiliiga B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Johvi Phoenix averaged 2.5 goals scored and 2.16 conceded. Parnu JK Vaprus U21 averaged 2.9 goals scored and 2.29 conceded. In past meetings, Johvi Phoenix won 1, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 25, 2026 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.38 for Johvi Phoenix and 2.50 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21. This points to a Johvi Phoenix double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Johvi Phoenix
15%
Draws
40%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Johvi Phoenix

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Johvi Phoenix picked up more points recently compared to Parnu JK Vaprus U21.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.38 vs 2.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 96%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 51%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 84%
Johvi Phoenix Clean Sheet 10%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 86%
Second Half Goal 91%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Johvi Phoenix Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Matches Played 32 21
Wins 17 10
Draws 2 3
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 2.5 2.9
Goals Conceded 2.16 2.29
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Esiliiga B
Johvi Phoenix vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
4:3
Apr 3, 2026 Esiliiga B
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Johvi Phoenix
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Johvi Phoenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Saar R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Velikanov V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohnja I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vahemets O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Johvi Phoenix 43 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Johvi Phoenix Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Johvi Phoenix or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.9%
1.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Johvi Phoenix attacking → ← attacking Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Johvi Phoenix scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 let in goals in 95% of their last 21 matches.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Johvi Phoenix went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 33
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tammeka Tartu U2118112552:3635
2Tulevik19111755:3934
3Narva U2117102543:2632
4Parnu JK Vaprus U2118102654:3832
5Johvi Phoenix18101745:4531
6Levadia U191892744:3329
7Tabasalu19901033:5027
8Tartu Kalev18711039:4022
9Tallinna Kalev U2118421237:4214
10Legion17211414:677