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Joinville vs Carlos Renaux - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Arena Joinville, Joinville
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Vitao
19'
Gustavo Sobral Alves Pereira L.
26' Event
Iago Dias

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense game between Joinville and Carlos Renaux finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Joinville.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Joinville
15%
Draws
45%
Carlos Renaux
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carlos Renaux

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Joinville come out ahead of Carlos Renaux on wins alone.
  • Joinville are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Joinville Clean Sheet 10%
Carlos Renaux Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Joinville Carlos Renaux
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 11 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 18 9
Goals Scored 1.06 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2026 Catarinense
Carlos Renaux vs Joinville
2:1
Feb 14, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux
3:0
Jan 21, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux
0:1
Oct 1, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Carlos Renaux vs Joinville
2:0
Sep 21, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Joinville Compare

Top Goalscorer Iago Dias
1 Goals
Assists Leader Luizinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Carlos Renaux Compare

Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Joinville 40 / 100
Carlos Renaux 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Joinville Carlos Renaux

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carlos Renaux let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Joinville went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Joinville's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Joinville VS Carlos Renaux
0.88 Goals Scored 4
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Joinville

(Home)
26 Sept
Joinville
2 : 1
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4
Joinville
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Joinville
Page 1 of 7

Carlos Renaux

(Away)
06 Mar
Figueirense
2 : 4
Carlos Renaux
26 Feb
Carlos Renaux
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
19 Feb
Carlos Renaux
2 : 1
Joinville
14 Feb
Joinville
3 : 0
Carlos Renaux
09 Feb
Marcilio Dias
1 : 1
Carlos Renaux
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
2 Carlos Renaux 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
3 Figueirense 6 2 0 4 6:7 7
4 Joinville 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Relegation - Catarinense 2 2027 (Main)