Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax

World World

Club Friendly
Fri, Jul 17, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jong AZ Alkmaar host Jong Ajax in the Club Friendly. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Jong Ajax have shipped 2.25 goals a game lately, while Jong AZ Alkmaar have conceded 2.38 and scored 1.25. Past meetings favor Jong AZ Alkmaar slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 12, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 1.75, favoring Jong AZ Alkmaar. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Jong AZ Alkmaar
6%
Draws
4%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Jong AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jong AZ Alkmaar come out ahead of Jong Ajax on wins alone.
  • Jong AZ Alkmaar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Jong AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 12%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong AZ Alkmaar Jong Ajax
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 3 6
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.38 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax
1:2
Aug 18, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
4:1
Jan 13, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax
2:1
Sep 17, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
1:2
May 10, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
1:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong AZ Alkmaar 83 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong AZ Alkmaar Jong Ajax

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JAZ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Jong Ajax conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Jong AZ Alkmaar scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Jong Ajax's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jong AZ Alkmaar VS Jong Ajax
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%