Sport Picks

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Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

84' Event
Menu M.
88' Event
Oerip J.
90' Event
Luijer R.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Jong AZ Alkmaar and Jong Ajax finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jong AZ Alkmaar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Jong AZ Alkmaar
30%
Draws
23%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jong AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jong AZ Alkmaar come out ahead of Jong Ajax on wins alone.
  • Jong AZ Alkmaar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Jong AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 13%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong AZ Alkmaar Jong Ajax
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 4 4
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 2.14 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.72 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax
3:0
Jan 12, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax
1:2
Aug 18, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
4:1
Jan 13, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Jong Ajax
2:1
Sep 17, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jong AZ Alkmaar Compare

Top Goalscorer Menu M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Oerip J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Jong Ajax Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong AZ Alkmaar 84 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong AZ Alkmaar Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jong AZ Alkmaar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong AZ Alkmaar found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Jong Ajax's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Jong AZ Alkmaar stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jong AZ Alkmaar VS Jong Ajax
3.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Jong AZ Alkmaar

(Home)
18 Sept
Jong AZ Alkmaar
4 : 1
FC Volendam
14 Sept
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
Heracles
3 : 2
Jong AZ Alkmaar
05 Sept
Dordrecht
3 : 6
Jong AZ Alkmaar
31 Aug
Jong AZ Alkmaar
2 : 1
Jong Utrecht
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Jong Ajax

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
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