Sport Picks

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Juarez U21 vs Toluca U21

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U21 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Carmona J.
85' Event
Monroy D.
89'
Shrem D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Juarez U21 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Juarez U21
30%
Draws
39%
Toluca U21
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Toluca U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Toluca U21's 1.87 goals per match outpaces what Juarez U21 have produced (1.16).
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Juarez U21 taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Juarez U21, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Juarez U21 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Juarez U21 Clean Sheet 14%
Toluca U21 Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juarez U21 Toluca U21
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 16
Draws 3 2
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.16 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Liga MX U21
Juarez U21 vs Toluca U21
3:0
Apr 29, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21
3:0
Mar 8, 2026 Liga MX U21
Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21
2:3
Aug 11, 2025 Liga MX U21
Juarez U21 vs Toluca U21
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juarez U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Carmona J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Monroy D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Toluca U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juarez U21 35 / 100
Toluca U21 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juarez U21 Toluca U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Toluca U21 conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Juarez U21 scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Juarez U21 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Juarez U21 VS Toluca U21
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Juarez U21

(Home)
31 Jul
Juarez U21
1 : 0
UNAM Pumas U21
17 Jul
Juarez U21
0 : 2
Puebla U21
10 May
Guadalajara Chivas U21
0 : 0
Juarez U21
08 May
Juarez U21
0 : 0
Guadalajara Chivas U21
02 May
Juarez U21
3 : 0
Toluca U21
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Toluca U21

(Away)
02 Aug
Toluca U21
2 : 0
Necaxa U21
21 Jul
Toluca U21
1 : 1
UNAM Pumas U21
18 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas U21
2 : 3
Toluca U21
02 May
Juarez U21
3 : 0
Toluca U21
29 Apr
Toluca U21
3 : 0
Juarez U21
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Club America U21 2
UNAM Pumas U21 2
Monterrey U21 3
Pachuca U21 5
Guadalajara Chivas U21 2
Atlas U21 1
Juarez U21 3
Toluca U21 3
Semi-finals
Club America U21 4
Pachuca U21 4
Guadalajara Chivas U21 0
Juarez U21 0
Final
Club America U21 1
Guadalajara Chivas U21 4