Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Junior vs Dep. Pasto

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Gil M.
46'
Sub
Barrios C. In: Canchimbo J.
Out: Barrios C.
52'
Sub
Castrillon B. In: Paiva G.
Out: Castrillon B.

AI Match Summary

The Primera A game between Junior and Dep. Pasto finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Junior.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Junior
33%
Draws
27%
Dep. Pasto
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Junior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dep. Pasto come out ahead of Junior on wins alone.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Junior taking it.
  • Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Junior Clean Sheet 68%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Junior Dep. Pasto
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 14
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.5 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Primera A
Junior vs Dep. Pasto
4:3
Sep 29, 2025 Primera A
Junior vs Dep. Pasto
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Junior
3:3
Aug 29, 2024 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Junior
1:0
Feb 8, 2024 Primera A
Junior vs Dep. Pasto
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Junior Compare

Top Goalscorer Muriel L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Paiva G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Dep. Pasto Compare

Top Goalscorer Gil M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Estupinan A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Junior 50 / 100
Dep. Pasto 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Junior Dep. Pasto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JUN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Junior's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Dep. Pasto let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

Difficult form: Dep. Pasto registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Junior VS Dep. Pasto
1.5 Goals Scored 0.71
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 29%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Junior

(Home)
26 Jul
Deportes Tolima
2 : 1
Junior
23 Jul
Junior
2 : 2
Barranquilla
08 Jun
Atl. Nacional
1 : 0
Junior
03 Jun
Junior
3 : 0
Atl. Nacional
28 May
Palmeiras
4 : 1
Junior
Page 1 of 6

Dep. Pasto

(Away)
29 Jul
Bogota
0 : 3
Dep. Pasto
25 Jul
Ind. Medellin
3 : 2
Dep. Pasto
22 Jul
Dep. Pasto
0 : 1
Bogota
13 May
Dep. Pasto
0 : 2
Deportes Tolima
09 May
Deportes Tolima
1 : 0
Dep. Pasto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Atl. Nacional19131535:1540
2Junior19112631:2435
3Dep. Pasto19104529:2534
4America De Cali19103625:1533
5Once Caldas1989231:2233
6Deportes Tolima1987427:1731
7Santa Fe1978429:2229
8Inter Bogotá1977526:2628
9Dep. Cali1976620:1627
10Millonarios1975731:2326
11Ind. Medellin1975726:2426
12Aguilas Doradas1975720:2526
13Bucaramanga1958626:2023
14Llaneros19410517:2022
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.1957722:2722
16Jaguares de Cordoba19531120:3318
17Alianza1938813:2717
18Chico19521215:3217
19Cucuta1937922:3516
20Dep. Pereira19171115:3210
Promotion - Primera A (Apertura - Play Offs)