Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Lopez B.
45'
Hinestroza Y.
46'
Sub
Hinestroza Y. In: Carter D.
Out: Hinestroza Y.

AI Match Summary

Juticalpa in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Juticalpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Juticalpa
15%
Draws
42%
Lobos UPNFM
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Juticalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lobos UPNFM lately — more wins on the board than Juticalpa.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Juticalpa Clean Sheet 17%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juticalpa Lobos UPNFM
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 6 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 1.03 1
Goals Conceded 2.35 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM
1:0
Apr 27, 2026 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM
1:0
Mar 9, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa
3:2
Nov 22, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Juticalpa
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 Liga Nacional
Juticalpa vs Lobos UPNFM
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juticalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Padilla J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juticalpa 36 / 100
Lobos UPNFM 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juticalpa Lobos UPNFM

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lobos UPNFM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juticalpa found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Lobos UPNFM let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Lobos UPNFM has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Juticalpa VS Lobos UPNFM
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Juticalpa

(Home)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
14 Sept
Atletico Independiente
2 : 1
Juticalpa
07 Sept
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Genesis FC
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Estrella
5 : 2
Juticalpa
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Lobos UPNFM

(Away)
18 Sept
Platense
0 : 2
Lobos UPNFM
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
06 Sept
Real Espana
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)