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Juv. Evora vs Moncarapachense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

81' Event
Lucao

AI Match Summary

Juv. Evora in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Juv. Evora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Juv. Evora
30%
Draws
33%
Moncarapachense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Juv. Evora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Juv. Evora lately — more wins on the board than Moncarapachense.
  • Model gives Juv. Evora a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Juv. Evora here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Juv. Evora Clean Sheet 68%
Moncarapachense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juv. Evora Moncarapachense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 11 10
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.52 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Juv. Evora
0:1
Dec 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Juv. Evora vs Moncarapachense
1:0
Apr 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Juv. Evora vs Moncarapachense
2:0
Dec 17, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moncarapachense vs Juv. Evora
0:2
Sep 11, 2022 Taça de Portugal
Juv. Evora vs Moncarapachense
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juv. Evora Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucao
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Moncarapachense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juv. Evora 46 / 100
Moncarapachense 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juv. Evora Moncarapachense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juv. Evora found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Moncarapachense has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Juv. Evora has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Juv. Evora VS Moncarapachense
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.29
88% Over 1.5 29%
50% Over 2.5 14%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Juv. Evora

(Home)
20 Sept
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 2
Juv. Evora
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2
Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Juv. Evora
1 : 1
Portel
30 Aug
Uniao Montemor
1 : 4
Juv. Evora
16 Aug
Juv. Evora
3 : 2
GD Alcochetense
Page 1 of 6

Moncarapachense

(Away)
18 Apr
O Elvas CAD
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1
Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Louletano
1 : 0
Moncarapachense
22 Mar
Moncarapachense
2 : 0
Sintrense
15 Mar
Portimonense B
0 : 3
Moncarapachense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)