Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Juventud vs Progreso

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Artigas, Las Piedras
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Cruz A.
33' Event
Pereiro G.
46'
Sub
Lemmo I. In: Dos Santos J.
Out: Lemmo I.

AI Match Summary

Juventud in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Juventud.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Juventud
30%
Draws
23%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Juventud

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Juventud average 1.26 goals a game right now, well clear of Progreso's 0.9.
  • Model gives Juventud a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Juventud Clean Sheet 68%
Progreso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juventud Progreso
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 8 8
Draws 11 5
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.26 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
2:0
Apr 12, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
1:0
Jan 19, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Juventud vs Progreso
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juventud Compare

Top Goalscorer Cruz A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pereiro G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juventud 59 / 100
Progreso 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juventud Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JUV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Juventud scored in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Progreso conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Juventud stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Juventud VS Progreso
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Juventud

(Home)
07 Aug
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Juventud
01 Aug
Maldonado
0 : 0
Juventud
17 Jul
Albion
0 : 1
Juventud
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
05 Jul
Danubio
1 : 1
Juventud
Page 1 of 7

Progreso

(Away)
08 Aug
Central Esp.
1 : 0
Progreso
02 Aug
Club Nacional
2 : 1
Progreso
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
11 Jul
Wanderers
2 : 0
Progreso
07 Jun
Progreso
1 : 2
Albion
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)