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Juventud vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Artigas, Las Piedras
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Cruz A.
33' Event
Pereiro G.
46'
Sub
Lemmo I. In: Dos Santos J.
Out: Lemmo I.

AI Match Summary

Juventud in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Juventud.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Juventud
20%
Draws
28%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Juventud

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Juventud have won more games recently than Progreso.
  • Model gives Juventud a 52% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Juventud Clean Sheet 68%
Progreso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juventud Progreso
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 12 2
Losses 8 19
Goals Scored 1.28 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
2:0
Apr 12, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
1:0
Jan 19, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Juventud vs Progreso
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Juventud vs Progreso
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juventud Compare

Top Goalscorer Cruz A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pereiro G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juventud 95 / 100
Progreso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juventud Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Juventud Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Juventud scored in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Progreso conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Juventud has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Juventud VS Progreso
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Juventud

(Home)
07 Oct
Plaza Colonia
0 : 1
Juventud
04 Oct
Boston River
0 : 0
Juventud
27 Sept
Juventud
0 : 0
CA Cerro
20 Sept
Albion
1 : 3
Juventud
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0
Racing Montevideo
Page 1 of 7

Progreso

(Away)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)