Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kagera Sugar vs Azam

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Sereri Z.
19' Event
Salum F.
35' Event
Nado I.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Azam in this Ligi Kuu Bara matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Azam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Kagera Sugar
30%
Draws
58%
Azam
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Azam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Kagera Sugar haven't matched Azam's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Azam's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Azam have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Azam Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kagera Sugar Azam
Matches Played 31 37
Wins 5 25
Draws 9 7
Losses 17 5
Goals Scored 0.81 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.58 0.59
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 2.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Azam
0:2
Apr 19, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Azam
2:4
Nov 23, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Kagera Sugar
1:0
May 25, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Kagera Sugar
5:1
Dec 21, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Azam
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kagera Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Azam Compare

Top Goalscorer Sereri Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Salum F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.85
Avg xA / game 1.13

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kagera Sugar 10 / 100
Azam 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kagera Sugar Azam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Azam Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Kagera Sugar scored in 48% of their last 31 games.

Azam has conceded goals in 32% of their last 37 outings.

Solid form: Kagera Sugar remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kagera Sugar VS Azam
0.83 Goals Scored 1.75
2.33 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kagera Sugar

(Home)
13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1
Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2
Kagera Sugar
19 Aug
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Singida Black Stars
Page 1 of 7

Azam

(Away)
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2
Simba
07 Sept
Azam
2 : 0
Namungo
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2
Azam
23 Aug
Azam
2 : 1
Pamba
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 16:2 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 11:2 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 11:7 14
4 Singida Black Stars 6 3 1 2 13:9 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 4:4 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 6:6 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 9:8 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
12 TRA United 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
14 Fountain Gate 6 1 1 4 2:9 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 5:14 2
16 Pamba 6 0 1 5 4:13 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)