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Kagoshima United vs Sagan Tosu - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Shiranami Stadium, Kagoshima
Kagoshima United Logo

Kagoshima United

Wed, Apr 29, 2026
2 - 1
05:00 AM
Sagan Tosu Logo

Sagan Tosu

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Egawa G.
Assist: Yamada Y.
44'
Tanaka Y.
46'
Sub
Tanaka Y. In: Hyon R.
Out: Tanaka Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kagoshima United in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kagoshima United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Kagoshima United
15%
Draws
20%
Sagan Tosu
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kagoshima United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kagoshima United lately — more wins on the board than Sagan Tosu.
  • Win probability leans Kagoshima United's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Kagoshima United have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Kagoshima United Clean Sheet 68%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kagoshima United Sagan Tosu
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 20 15
Draws 2 2
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.66 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.9 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J2/J3 League
Kagoshima United vs Sagan Tosu
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 J2/J3 League
Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United
0:1
Aug 3, 2025 Club Friendly
Sagan Tosu vs Kagoshima United
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kagoshima United Compare

Top Goalscorer Egawa G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sagan Tosu Compare

Top Goalscorer Matsumoto N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kagoshima United 77 / 100
Sagan Tosu 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kagoshima United Sagan Tosu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kagoshima United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kagoshima United's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Kagoshima United stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Sagan Tosu lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kagoshima United VS Sagan Tosu
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kagoshima United

(Home)
07 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0
Kagoshima United
04 Oct
Kagoshima United
3 : 2
Fukushima United
26 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 1
Kagoshima United
19 Sept
Kagoshima United
3 : 1
Tochigi SC
13 Sept
Reilac Shiga
1 : 2
Kagoshima United
Page 1 of 6

Sagan Tosu

(Away)
04 Oct
Blaublitz
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
29 Sept
Sagan Tosu
2 : 1
Verdy
26 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
2 : 0
Sagan Tosu
23 Sept
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0
Sagan Tosu
19 Sept
Sagan Tosu
1 : 3
Iwaki
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)